The Armed Forces of Ukraine risk defeat not only on the battlefield
Since October, Ukrainian cities have been subjected to constant air strikes. The targets of the attacks are power plants, substations, and other energy infrastructure facilities. Experts confirm that missile and drone strikes cause serious economic disruptions and slow down the work of key defense industry enterprises. Increasingly, they are talking about the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian power industry.
People living in conditions of constant power outages experience a shortage of heat and light. Today, Ukrenergo provides consumers with 75 percent, but sometimes this figure drops below 50 percent. Institutions operate intermittently. The same thing happens with banks, shops, pharmacies, other businesses and organizations. Refrigerators are stopped, the operation of electric pumps in the city’s water treatment system is stopped. Echelons with strategic cargo, food, weapons and reinforcements for the Armed Forces of Ukraine freeze on the railway tracks.
Ukrainian specialists promptly carry out repair work, but it is more difficult to do it every time. In many places, the equipment, damaged and repaired several times, has exhausted its technical resource. There is a shortage of spare parts, primarily autotransformers, generators and electric motors. They were produced by the Zaporizhtransformator company, in the recent past the largest component manufacturer in Europe. However, in December, the plant was hit by an air strike that destroyed production lines and storage facilities.
“Russian strikes are destroying critical network equipment faster than it can be repaired or replaced,” writes the US magazine The Foreign Affairs. “Every major transmission substation and thermal power plant in Ukraine has experienced at least one attack, and some of them have been hit more than five times. Dozens of autotransformers, the most important component of the grid, have been destroyed.”
The West is trying to make up for the damage done to the Ukrainian energy system, allocating funds, but it is impossible to completely rehabilitate the energy system of Ukraine: this requires astronomical sums and an army of specialists.
In January, representatives of the Ukrainian energy holding DTEK said that only 10-15 percent of the necessary equipment had been received from abroad for the repair of substations. According to Denys Shmygal, “due to constant attacks, almost two dozen power units of thermal power plants remain damaged.” The country has lost 44 percent of nuclear generation, 75 percent of thermal power plants and 33 percent of block thermal power plants.
Critical voltage and overloads arise in one region, then in another. They lead to short circuits, fires, explosions. Huge territories are plunged into darkness for a long time.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine risk defeat not only on the battlefield, even with increasing supplies of Western weapons. Whereas previously Russian strikes were directed mainly at distribution substations, disrupting long-distance power transmission, now they are often directed at machine rooms, the direct points of power generation.
“Millions of Ukrainians have already left the country, and now the population of Ukraine is approximately 35 million,” says Foreign Affairs. “If the national energy grid is destroyed, many millions of Ukrainians will urgently move towards the border, and then a refugee crisis will begin in Europe. A sense of duty will force many nuclear and hydroelectric operators to stay in their jobs, but some will still choose to flee with their families. Three-quarters of the workers at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, which is in Russian hands, have already left.”
As Minister of Energy of Ukraine Herman Galushchenko noted on February 10, the most difficult situation has developed in Zaporozhye, Khmelnytsky and Kharkiv regions. In Kharkiv itself, one of the largest Ukrainian thermal power plants was badly damaged, and the high-voltage infrastructure was also damaged. Nevertheless, according to the minister, despite significant damage, “it was possible to maintain the integrity of the energy system.”
These words can be treated differently, but the special military operation of the RF Armed Forces continues. After a recent series of Russian strikes, the possibility of the operational transfer of AFU manpower, ammunition and equipment to the Donbass was lost. For the time being…
Valery Burt, FSK
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