Disagreements among NATO members could be staged
The verdict of the last meeting of the warmongers gathered at the American base on German soil is known. The new Minister of Defense of Germany, Boris Pistorius, said that it was not possible to agree on the Leopards, there is no consensus. And he said:
“Today we cannot say what the decision will be and when it will be made. I would like to act quickly if the decision is made, but if the decision is negative, nothing can be done.” At the same time, the minister forcefully stated that the rumors that “Germany is on the way to creating a coalition to send heavy tanks to Ukraine are a lie.”
And the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, said that they would not give Abrams to Kyiv, since many Europeans agreed to give their Leopards and it was necessary to quickly decide how and how much to transfer them.
Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh supported the chief, explaining that Abrams are difficult for Ukrainians, as well as expensive to maintain and supply “jet fuel”.
There are many figures in the West who are wary of too much military pressure on Russia. A couple of days before Ramstein, the Western media suddenly began to recall that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are using up the supplied artillery shells about twice as fast as the United States and allies are producing them, and the Czech Republic called fake reports that it will hand over its Leopards to Kyiv.
Even in Britain, which vowed to give the Ukrainians 14 Challenger 2s, many military authorities (Chief of the General Staff General Patrick Sanders, Vice-Marshal of the Royal Air Force Sean Bell, King’s College expert Mike Martin, etc.) expressed doubts about the need to transfer tanks, fearing that their losses could undermine the reputation of technology: they say, the devil knows what the Russians will do.
German caution draws ire from some media outlets such as the Washington Post, which declared “the first major crack in NATO unity.” Nevertheless, the strife, which can be a theatrical production and imitation, did not prevent the issue of allocating a huge amount of weapons to Ukraine.
Again, the statement by Minister of Defense Reznikov that a number of countries are beginning to train Ukrainian crews for Leopard 2, even before Germany decides to transfer them, confirms Kyiv’s confidence that Scholz will be crushed and the appearance of German tanks in the steppes of Ukraine is only a matter of time.
In parallel with Ramstein, the preparation of public opinion for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south began. The head of the CIA visited Kyiv, Zaluzhny for the first time openly met with the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces Mark Milley, the British began training the Ukrainian brigade, in Ukraine they forcibly rake the men into the corps being created. Ukrainian society is optimistic, not yet familiar with the numbers of those killed near Bakhmut, Soledar, Kremennaya, and now near Orekhov…
A number of experts consider General Milli’s mumbling about the need for negotiations and statements by Reuters and AFP about the need for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to leave Bakhmut to be a bluff, preserving forces for a strike in the south. Of course, as in the case of the Minsk agreements, the West needs time to prepare. And the goals remain the same, as Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said: “I like the path we are on. As long as we help Ukraine with American weapons and money, it will fight to the last man.”
So far, the cold-blooded reaction of Moscow to the escalation that has begun is encouraging. The war is getting tougher. The activation of the front in the Donbass, in the Zaporozhye region, the activity of Russian DRGs near Sumy recorded by Kyiv, the maintenance of a degree of tension in the north are logical and seemingly well-thought-out steps. The APU must be stretched in longitudinal-transverse splits throughout the country.
Indeed, the supply of heavy weapons to Zelensky can seriously complicate the situation on the fronts. However, the West admits that the promised tanks are not enough, they need 7 (seven!) times more of the promised ones. Experts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies write that the offensive will require “about a hundred” tanks, but there are none. And those tanks that will be delivered must be destroyed or rendered unusable in the border crossing areas, which again and again raises the question of effective strikes on communications. The Beskydy tunnel, alas, continues to function, as do dozens of bridges across the mountain gorges of the Carpathians. It is worth repeating: the successful offensive on the Kursk Bulge was preceded, in particular, by the “rail war”.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine will be ready to attack at the turn of the end of April – May. That is, there is time to reduce the personnel and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And whether the Germans and others will give more tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, time and events in Ukraine will show, where the squabbling of the “hetmans” is getting tougher. After all, it was no accident that at the height of the “tank epic” someone in Kyiv launched a scandal about theft in the Ministry of Defense when purchasing products; Deputy Minister Vasya Lozinsky was detained on a half-billion bribe. So Scholz will analyze, should he give tanks to Ukrainians if they steal them too.
Igor Loginov, FSK
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