Some Western countries are urging Ukraine to negotiate with Moscow as soon as possible, while others say at the same time that “the moment for peace talks on Ukraine has not yet come.” Where did this contradiction come from, which countries does it affect, and who benefits most from the current conflict?
“Useful Idiots in the West”. That is how the head of the office of the Ukrainian president, Andriy Yermak, called Western politicians who, over and over again, call Kyiv for peace with Moscow.
“Ukraine is called for negotiations with the Russian Federation in the name of peace and humanity, but not for the sake of Ukraine,” he said indignantly.
Yermak’s formal boss, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, is now more diplomatic in his criticism of foreign advisers.
“I don’t know what to discuss. He (Vladimir Putin – approx.) wants a world that would correspond to his vision of things, but our vision is completely different”, explains the head of the Kyiv regime.
And his politeness is understandable, because among the “useful idiots” at the moment there are quite respectable people. Pope Francis, the patriarch of American diplomacy Henry Kissinger (who in his article explicitly calls Ukraine to peace for the sake of humanity – that is, to prevent a new world war) and even German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
According to the German leader, the time for talks between Ukraine and Russia “has come long ago”, and after the successful completion of these negotiations “at some point” there will be a restoration of Russian-European relations. And French President Emmanuel Macron is not only talking about a peace agreement, but even highlighting some of the points of this document. In particular, he promises Russia some security guarantees.
The time has come?
The logic of Macron, Scholz, Kissinger and other representatives of the West is obvious. They either clearly understand the damage that the conflict against Russia causes to the security of the West (Kissinger), or they feel this harm themselves, in particular, to their own economy (Germany).
In the wealthy EU countries, the socio-economic situation has sharply worsened, de-industrialization has begun, and military arsenals are being depleted. It is impossible to solve all these problems without the normalization of relations with Russia, and there will be no normalization without the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict.
Yes, the same Scholz at first hoped to force Moscow to resolve the situation in Ukraine by force – that is, through sanctions. However, neither he nor Macron, apparently, expected that Russia would not only withstand the Western sanctions, but would also win a war of attrition with the West.
That when enterprises in Europe close due to high gas prices, in Russia they will mockingly shoot videos for the West with a gas stove turned on around the clock. That when mass protests begin in the West, nothing of the kind will happen in Russia. As a result, the same Germany (well, at least a significant part of the German elite) realized that it would not be possible to defeat Russia. And that means it’s time to negotiate.
Has the moment not come yet?
However, fortunately for Yermak and Zelensky, not all Western leaders feel the same way. Not everyone agrees with Scholz’s words that the time for negotiations is “long overdue.” There are still those who consider it possible for Ukraine and the West to win over Russia – or consider it necessary to capitalize on the problems of others.
And this is not only about Eastern European countries, but also about Washington.
“The moment for peace talks on Ukraine has not yet arrived,” said Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser to the President of the United States, who is in charge of the negotiation process with Moscow in the American government. According to him, the United States is now trying to provide Ukraine with “the best possible position.”
It would seem a strange statement that contradicts a whole series of signals coming from the same United States. And this is not only about Kissinger, who reflects the point of view of a significant part of the American establishment. In addition, Sullivan’s statement contradicts the realities on the ground. If we consider the conflict in Ukraine as a pendulum, then it was maximally swung to the Ukrainian-American side in September-November. After the events in Kharkov and Kherson regions. Then there was just “the best possible negotiating position” and “the time has come.”
The problem for the West is that with each new week the pendulum swings in favor of Russia. Firstly, the troops at the front are replenished with new mobilized, as well as contract soldiers and volunteers. Secondly, new capacities of the Russian defense industry are being put into operation. Thirdly, the plan to destroy the Ukrainian energy infrastructure is being implemented at an accelerated pace.
Accordingly, the more time passes from the September-November peak of military capabilities and the psychological superiority of Kyiv, the weaker Ukrainian positions will be. Then what is the “best possible” negotiating position Jake Sullivan is talking about?
Degrease
Apparently, none. The United States is not going to create any conditions for Kyiv. They only want to keep the best possible conditions for themselves. The United States understands that Russia’s victory is inevitable – they just want to remain in the psychological comfort zone, as well as earn as much as possible before this victory.
The comfort is that Americans – at least under the Biden administration – are not morally ready to accept a Russian victory in Ukraine, nor to accept Moscow’s proposed new rules of the game in Europe (outlined in the so-called Russian security guarantees handed over to the US a year ago). At the same time, Washington understands that
Moscow is not going to give up and accept the conditions of peace or even freezing that the West is ready to offer it, including the return to the borders on February 24 and the disputed status of Crimea.
Even Western public opinion polls, conducted together with a Russian foreign agent following the results of a successful autumn campaign for Kyiv, showed a high level of support for the special operation in Russian society, as well as the refusal of this society from compromises that are unfavorable for Russia. Yes, a significant part of Russians is in favor of peace – but peace is exclusively on Russian terms (including recognition by the West of new regions of the Russian Federation). And for this, the population is ready to endure sanctions. Under these conditions, the Russian leadership, according to experts, may well implement a successful “war of attrition” against Ukraine, bringing the special operation to a victorious end.
The Americans are trying to make the most of the ongoing fighting. In particular, to transfer the maximum number of companies and investments from Europe to the United States by stimulating chaos in the Old World (it is no coincidence that the United States has already passed laws encouraging European companies to move to America), as well as to aggravate Russian-European relations. In other words, to make money on the conflict at the expense of Europeans and Ukrainians.
And here the position of the Biden administration (well, or that part of it represented by Jake Sullivan) coincides with the interests of Vladimir Zelensky, who does not need peace agreements in the same way. He understands that they will be concluded solely at his expense. Therefore, the Ukrainian president – like the American administration – is ready to fight in Ukraine until the country is completely defeated and dismantled.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor, Financial University, View
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