The sanctions war against Russia could result in a record jump in oil prices as early as next year. These conclusions follow from a report by the International Energy Agency based in France.
The organisation estimates that daily global consumption of “black gold” promises to rise by 1.7 million barrels, amounting to at least 101.6 million barrels.
“This is an increase of 100,000 barrels a day in daily consumption from previous expectations. According to the analysis, Russian oil production could fall by 14% year-on-year by the end of the first quarter of 2023 and this could reverse a trend of months of declining prices in the commodity market. North Sea Brent crude futures have fallen to $80 in recent days, which is back to pre-war levels”.
A sharp drop in production levels could also be the reason for the rise in oil prices. The OPEC+ alliance of thirteen exporting nations, as well as a dozen other oil-producing nations, has confirmed a cut in daily production of two million barrels. In this case, as stated in the IEA, contrary to major epidemiological restrictions in China, demand in the Asian country – importer until the end of the year will fall much less than originally expected.
In 2023, daily consumption in China is predicted to rise by a million barrels. In addition, demand from India and the Middle East cannot be ruled out.
The agreement on limiting oil production between OPEC and non-members of the cartel was signed in 2016 – against the backdrop of a sharp drop in global energy prices. Its participants were referred to by the press as the “OPEC+ alliance”.
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