Russia was Germany’s main gas supplier for a long time but has lost that status since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, Focus writes.
In 2020, Russia exported 56.3 billion cubic metres of gas to Germany, about half of Germany’s total blue fuel imports, according to Focus. The Kremlin was far ahead of other suppliers, but exports fell in June 2022 and came to a complete halt in August. Germany, of course, managed to fill its gas storages for the winter at the expense of supplies from Norway and the Netherlands, but it had to pay a lot of money, says Christoph Sackmann, author of the article.
“The question arises: ‘What will happen when the fighting in Ukraine is over? Will Germany then be able to buy natural gas from Russia again and will it do so? And if so, under what conditions? And if not, what are the alternatives?” – asks the German journalist. The situation is very “muddled”, with a mixture of “perceptions of moral values and pragmatic concerns”, so there is no perfect solution.
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies held a conference in October at which it asked the politicians and experts present: “Will Russia again become the most important supplier of natural gas to Europe after the end of hostilities in Ukraine?” Opinions were split evenly: 40 percent said yes, 40 percent said no, and the rest abstained. Those who said it would not happen consider a renewed cooperation with Kremlin head Vladimir Putin morally unacceptable.
But at the same time, it is not known whether he will still be running the country by then, and even if not, it cannot be ruled out that his successor may prove even less restrained. It should not be forgotten that Germany trades with countries that are also subject to moral complaints. For example Qatar or Kazakhstan, where human rights do not play a large role, argues Sachmann.
The question of alternatives to Russian natural gas also arises, continues the author. The Germans will certainly be able to find other exporters in the long term. Russia undoubtedly has more gas than other countries, but 75 percent of the world’s reserves are stored elsewhere: in Iran, Qatar, the US, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates and China. The author warns that finding countries with which it would be morally preferable to cooperate would be difficult: “Apart from the US, none of the states listed above is ranked higher than 137th on the human rights index of the US organization V-Dem, which comprises 178 countries”.
The biggest advantage of Russian gas was also its price, continues Focus. Shipments by tanker from distant countries would cost more than by pipeline. In addition, special terminals would have to be built to receive the liquefied natural gas. So energy prices will be high for a long time to come, but there are doubts that the German population is ready for it. The cost of gas can also rise because the infrastructure needs to be built to ensure the necessary supply, and exporters need to reorganize production and transport. That’s why cooperation with Qatar won’t start until 2026. The situation with other countries is similar. Only the US can ship LNG to Germany right now – using Dutch terminals if necessary – but it will charge a price, the author warns.
Ideally, the Germans should reduce the amount of gas consumed in the future, Sachmann advises. This would be for natural reasons, because global warming means that winters in Germany are not as harsh as they used to be. But even more can be achieved through conscious measures. The development of renewable energies can help. If it goes ahead as planned, or even faster, less and less fossil fuels will be used to generate electricity. But it will not be possible to abandon it completely for safety reasons, as gas-fired power stations provide a good base load.
Energy consumption in the industrial sector also needs to be reduced. Even before the price hikes this year, the large consumers of natural gas had already started fossil fuel substitution projects. Steel producers, for example, want to use hydrogen instead of gas to feed their blast furnaces in future. Chemical companies are already using heat pumps whenever possible. The glass industry is betting on a hybrid solution, deriving heat partly from electricity. But the longer it takes for the country to “ecologically transform society”, the longer it will need natural gas supplies from other countries, including Russia. “Reality could quickly return Russia to being a trading partner,” Sachmann concludes.
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