As soon as the cold set in, a drain barrel called Bloomberg began to “warm up” the European public. Yesterday, an article was published there about whether it is time for Russia to return the status of the main gas supplier to the EU again.
At the same time, the reasoning is completely understandable. If Europe wants to keep its chemical, food and heavy industries competitive, it needs “cheap gas from Russia”.
And, of course, the necessary politicians and “experts” were immediately found who are ready to confirm anything. So, they pulled out the opinion of the Prime Minister of Saxony, who responsibly stated that to remain without Russian gas forever would be “historically ignorant and geopolitically wrong.” Like it wasn’t obvious before.
Indeed, gas import prices for Germany have risen 7 times (compared to the average from 2010 to 2020). The government spends billions on subsidies. The drop in gas consumption over the 11 months of 2022 was minus 15% on average and minus 20% for industry. Well, on average in the EU, gas generation decreased by 23%.
That is, with Europe, in principle, everything is clear. The energy gap with Russia, combined with the rest of the stupidity, dealt its economy an almost fatal blow. That’s about the benefits of Russia-the big question.
Yes, gas and other infrastructure to the west has been under construction for decades. Yes, our oil and gas giants earned a lot of money, which, among other things, filled the Russian budget.
However, a fact is a fact – in the short term existentially, they needed Russia more than Russia needed them.
However, it is important to remember something else. As Europe adapts (and it will inevitably happen, and is already happening, albeit extremely painfully), Russia’s leverage will weaken.
Therefore, purely theoretically, it is possible to resume deliveries, of course. However, this should be done exclusively from a rigid position of one’s own interests. And these interests do not consist in rustling candy wrappers (albeit in large quantities), which there is nothing to even spend on. Do you want gas? Good. We need such-and-such technologies and such-and-such equipment.
This is if negotiations are conducted purely in the economic plane (goods for goods). Although it would be possible to include a political factor.
Further. Like it or not, Europe as a market is a thing of the past. They themselves, apparently, began to understand this, that Russia, having turned to the East, will not fully turn back. And not even for political, but for purely pragmatic reasons. The “turn to the East” has been going on for more than a year, but now these processes have accelerated many times over.
But we also need to act wisely, and not rush into the pool headlong into the arms of a new “mono buyer” in another part of the world. Theoretically, the resumption of deliveries to Europe could further diversify our sales markets without creating a new uncontested link elsewhere.
In general, resuming cooperation with Western “partners” is permissible only if there is a strong political will based on the interests of Russia in the long term. While the enemy is in a weak and vulnerable position. There may not be another opportunity like this.
Konstantin Dvinsky
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