Now on the Donbass front, the main mistakes of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) committed during the autumn, as well as the tactical successes of the allied forces, are becoming more and more clearly manifested. Commissar Yury Kotenok writes about this in his Telegram channel.
After the events of Kherson, the Ukrainian command made a mistake, succumbing to euphoria, the military commander believes. Too many personnel (about 50 thousand) were withdrawn for training and improving combat capability. The withdrawal of personnel from the contact line coincided with the depletion of stocks transferred by the EU. In the summer, when the Russian army did not have enough front density, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were all right with this. Now the situation has changed.
In addition, Kotenok notes, regular problems appear in the work of Western technology. For example, a German self-propelled gun after 50 shots a day should go for maintenance. However, she shoots at the AFU much more. Accordingly, wear and tear of equipment is manifested. The same with the artillery mounts, which went in excess to be serviced.
“The factors overlap. This is military happiness. The offensive near Bakhmut led to very serious losses of the enemy. The winter offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been thwarted. With forces that were resting and preparing for offensive operations, they now have to patch up and hold the front so that it does not break through in Bakhmut and Maryinka. If the situation is played out correctly, we can talk about mastering at least a tactical initiative. This is a classic story where several factors and the mistake of the enemy command were superimposed”, the author writes.
He notes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are defiantly hitting the center of Donetsk in order to pull off Russian artillery, forcing it to work along Avdiivka, so that the allied forces again move to Avdiivka to fight their artillery. In this issue, the military commander notes some problems with the counter-battery fight against the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a lack of technical forces and means.
At the same time, the Ukrainian army is trying to draw the attention of the allied forces away from Bakhmut, from where it withdraws its personnel. This is all a consequence of the combination of their mistakes and the depletion of reserves. In addition, the author believes, if in the near future Russia “drops” the Dnieper bridges, then we can say that closer to spring, a struggle for the Left Bank may unfold.
“We carried out reconnaissance in force to the west of Ugledar, taking the 1st line of the enemy near Velikaya Novoselka, and retreated. While there is a big offensive here and the turn of the right flank of the Donetsk grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is impossible. It is necessary to squeeze Bakhmut and look at the situation in the Marinka area, where there are urban battles. After the capture of Bakhmut and Marinka, there is a direct road to Konstantinovka, Ugledar and the surroundings of Avdiivka”, Kitenok writes.
Thus, the allied forces get a tactical advantage over the spring-summer campaign. Judging by the fact that Ukraine is withdrawing 93 ombr from Bakhmut, the enemy is beginning to come to terms with the loss of the city. The main thing today is to take advantage of the situation, the military commander believes.
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