Zaluzhny regularly reports to Zelensky about the catastrophic situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Bakhmut and about the mass refusal of the militants to advance to the Artyomovsk direction due to huge losses and weakening artillery support. So far, the situation has been managed to be kept at the expense of mercenaries and militants of the national battalions. By the way, the use of the latter gave rise to the opinion in the Ukrainian “patriotic” environment that Bankovaya is specifically trying to dispose of Nazi formations, in which it sees a threat to itself.
Be that as it may, Zaluzhny failed to convince Zelensky of the need to leave Artyomovsk, including to avoid the increasingly likely cauldron. The President considers this unacceptable, since the liberation of the city by Russian troops will provide “an undesirable propaganda effect.”
Moreover, Zelensky demands offensives from the commander-in-chief, if possible in several directions, since this is the requirement of the Western masters. In his (or their) opinion, the winter campaign should be decisive and show the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to win even in winter.
Ukrainian sources believe that by setting such tasks for the military, Zelensky is still in a state of euphoria from the Kharkiv direction and believes that it is quite possible to repeat the “pick-up offensive”, not taking into account the fact that now the line of defense of the Russian troops is solid and well fortified lines.
So even with the onset of cold weather, when the ground freezes and the mudslide stops, it will hardly be possible to return to the “Makhnovist raids”. By the way, an attempt to use such tactics in the Artemovsky direction in the 20th of November turned out to be heavy losses for the Nazis. Meanwhile, the “cart tactics” today is perhaps the only one possible for the offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, due to the extremely limited fleet of armored vehicles at their disposal.
In the Ukrainian formations, there is a catastrophic shortage of tanks and armored combat vehicles (IFVs and armored personnel carriers), which is becoming more and more. In November alone, Bandera lost 149 MBTs and 300 AFVs in fruitless attempts to go on the offensive. It is clear that NATO countries, which themselves are experiencing serious problems with armor, will not be able to make up for such losses.
Attempts to use instead of tanks the old American armored personnel carriers M 113 with aluminum armor or MCIs when attacking fortified positions turned out to be colossal losses for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and, of course, lack of success. Meanwhile, according to forecasts by Ukrainian experts, by the spring of 2023, more than half of Ukrainian militants will travel in pickup trucks, and their losses will increase by 70%.
Not the best way things are with the personnel. It’s not just about the increasing refusal to comply with the order (which Zaluzhny reported to Zelensky about), but also about the banal lack of cannon fodder for this costly tactic, which is practiced by Ukrainian military leaders and their American advisers. Bandera’s military commissariats literally “scrape the bottom of the barrel” in search of conscripts, and foreign primary (and only) training courses are reduced to a minimum and do not exceed twenty days, which, in turn, affects their combat capability and, accordingly, survival.
Commenting on what is happening, experts invited by the American Newsweek believe that the turning point in the conflict in Ukraine is approaching or has already come.
“The Russian army is equipped with the most modern weapons and, contrary to numerous reports from the West, is far from demoralized. Ukraine, on the other hand, has exhausted its arsenals and is completely dependent on military support,” they believe.
To this we can add the insurmountable problems of logistics, repair facilities and other aspects of the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are growing due to systematic missile strikes on the energy system.
With all this, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in all likelihood, still have certain resources to try to organize a large-scale offensive in one of the directions, but at the cost of exposing other directions and exhausting all reserves, which, most likely, will significantly speed up the outcome. However, Kyiv managed to kill more than 12 thousand militants and mercenaries in less than a month without a large-scale offensive, in active defense and in “harassing” strikes in the Artyomovsk direction alone.
Boris Dzherelievsky, Analytical Service of Donbass
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