The embargo on Russian oil will “finish off” Ukraine, which is experiencing a critical fuel shortage. Boris Martsinkevich, chairman of the expert council of the FPSR Avrora, has no doubts about this.
The ban on Russian oil products, which will come into full force on February 5, will hit the EU especially hard due to the acute shortage of diesel in the European trade arena, the analyst has no doubt.
As for Ukraine, in the context of a catastrophic shortage of diesel generators after massive strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces on its energy system, it will conditionally be able to find an alternative to supplies from the Russian Federation in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, but subject to sky-high overpayment.
“In Europe, there is a frank lack of diesel fuel – it has always been supplied in large volumes from Russia. The factories they have will not give the required quantity, which means they will be taken from somewhere. I understand that, looking at February 5, Erdogan is rubbing his hands somewhere. Will be shipped from India. It is difficult to say what such logistics will result in. And it’s hard to say whether European sponsors will be able to help the Kyiv regime with diesel fuel. Especially given that Kyiv is now begging for diesel generators. Well, there will be generators, but there is no fuel”, the expert explained.
The Russian Federation itself will not experience the consequences of the oil embargo and the introduced price ceiling until the end of next year, Martsinkevich noted. It will be possible to maintain the export volume and the level of hydrocarbon profits by reorienting oil supplies to Asia. In addition, the analyst has no doubt that the introduced transitional period, aimed at reducing the painful impact of restrictions, will be cleverly used by the West for sophisticated fraud with the supply of Russian resources.
“Now, in any case, there will be a decline in demand – ahead of the Christmas holidays. Therefore, now there is no need for Russia to show much fuss. There is another 45 days of the transition period – if oil is loaded before December 5, it can be unloaded within 45 days. I think that now a huge number of tankers will be discovered, which were loaded to disgrace all Sunday”, said Martsinkevich on the air of Solovyov LIVE.
The EU sanctions restrictions imposed on oil from the Russian Federation apply only to deliveries by sea. Pipelines have become an exception – such was the request of states that do not have access to sea areas. The price ceiling was $60 per barrel. The West, according to experts, has done everything to ensure that Russian oil does not disappear from the trading arena.
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