For a long time, at the top of Russian society and the state apparatus, Iran was treated as a pariah country. In strict accordance with the guidelines of the “world community”. Aid to the government of Bashar al-Assad in the civil war unleashed against him by the West changed a lot. It turned out that it is possible to cooperate fruitfully with the Iranians and intimidate “Western partners” with the intensification of such cooperation no less fruitfully.
Iran’s deliveries of Shahid 136 loitering ammunition and their effective use in Ukraine have become the most powerful PR campaign against the picture of hostilities promoted by the Western media. It may be that the purely military effectiveness of these UAVs is exaggerated compared to the same Lancets, but in the information field the Geran-2 factor works, as it plays on the most vulnerable in the views of the Western public – its own military-technical superiority.
Firstly, the Geraniums inflict damage, moreover, by the standards of Western weapons, they cost a penny. And for countries whose defense budgets could be used to plant apple orchards on Mars, there is nothing more unpleasant than simple, cheap and effective enemy weapons. This calls into question the ideology of the rich, that technology guarantees victory and money guarantees security.
In the West, the psychology of fortress walls is generally widespread. Citizens build fences on their plots and install high-impact doors in apartments, states erect walls on the borders and develop projects like “star wars” or “iron domes”. In short, they live in a “garden”, and we live in a “jungle” from which we need to fence ourselves off.
The same is with the manufacturability of weapons. The concept under which budgets are formed dominates: money = technology = “smart weapons” = victory. Therefore, when it turns out that a potential adversary has simple, reliable and effective military means, the logic collapses and fear arises. But what if “smart” avionics, sighting systems for armored vehicles, “fire-and-forget” systems do not guarantee victory? What if you have to conduct a contact fight, “fight with a bayonet”? What if, in the end, Starbucks goes out of power and the mercenary army has to be replenished with mobilized gender-neutral TikTokers?
But it is impossible to say directly that the Russian Federation has more effective and cheaper types of weapons – this does not correspond to the “manual”. Geranium is another matter. The enemy in the information war tried to make Russia look weak, as it had to buy weapons even from Iran, which, according to the West, was stuck in the 80s. But reality played a cruel joke on propaganda, and it turned against its creators. From the fact of the effectiveness of Geraniums, ideas about the weakness of the Russian Federation gave way to a feeling of discomfort and their own vulnerability.
Interestingly, the “Geran” factor gained momentum in the information space because before that the path to the minds of the public was trodden by the advertising campaign of the Turkish “Bayraktars”. Everyone has already been convinced of the special importance of the UAV on modern battlefields, that it is almost a miracle weapon. “Geraniums” simply replaced “Bayraktar” in the “agenda” as a more effective tool in general and terrible in terms of cheapness.
In general, this idea of a miracle weapon is well known where it comes from. In reality, as in the Great Patriotic War, cannon and rocket artillery remain the decisive weapons. So the formula about the “god of war” remains valid. Although it cannot be denied that the role of the UAV was criminally underestimated by the Russian command or the “captains” of the military-industrial complex.
Secondly, if Iran is helping Russia with drones, then it’s scary to even imagine how Russia can help Iran. And this question begs itself, especially in connection with the diplomatic game that both sides have implemented. Many wondered why both sides officially denied the fact of the supply of Shahids, although absolutely all experts, journalists, military correspondents, soldiers and even politicians openly spoke about the use of this loitering ammunition in Ukraine. Only recently, the Iranians admitted that they did sell a “limited batch” of drones before the start of the special operation.
The explanation seems to be on the surface: Iran wanted to avoid sanctions and wrote a non-disclosure clause in the contract. But the sanctions were still imposed, and it was clear from the outset that they would still be imposed by anyone who wanted to. So here it is rather read, on the one hand, the desire not to disturb the Iranian neighbors, to do everything in an Eastern behind the scenes, on the other hand, to hint to the West about the possibility of similarly confidential cooperation already to increase the military potential of the Iranian army. If the United States prefers to harm the Russian Federation in all directions and in all areas, then why shouldn’t the Russian Federation help a country that has been fighting for decades to oust America from the Middle East?
Iran is one of the few countries in the world that truly has sovereignty and pursues a foreign policy without the dictates of any external forces. The Iranian state was born by the Islamic revolution of 1979 and is highly ideological. The central idea in the political doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran is the “Islamic liberation” of the people from foreign influence in every sense, primarily from the West, from the American. Iran is not only rich in oil, but also has a relatively self-sufficient economy. In a sense, Iran is an example of the implementation of a socialist system on a religious basis. Moreover, the Iranians consider the teachings of the leader of the Islamic revolution Khomeini on the organization of state power and the structure of society to be universal for all Muslims.
Iranians prefer to divide all countries and political forces of the Middle East region into allies in the national liberation movement of Muslim peoples (primarily Arabs and Persians) from American imperialism, hostile and neutral. Under the influence of Iran, a kind of “Axis of Resistance” was formed, which includes both Shiite organizations (Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis and the Iraqi opposition), and Sunnis (Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad) and even secular parties, for example, the Syrian Baath headed by B. Assad. In general, few people talk about the “Axis of Resistance” and little is known about it, but in the Middle East this situational alliance of religious and nationalist forces of different ideologies, carrying out the fight against American imperialism, plays an important and prominent role.
Due to the fact that Iran pursues an independent policy directed against the United States, it has no less enemies than Russia, and there are various frictions with almost all countries in the region.
Despite the fact that the Middle East region is located at a considerable geographical distance from America, the United States, for well-known reasons, considers the Persian Gulf a sphere of its private interests, and the Levant a natural gateway to it. After the collapse of the USSR and the “Eastern bloc”, the US dominated Europe and Asia, focusing on the Middle East. They unleashed several wars there, have strongholds of their presence and influence in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria. American aviation nests not only in the “country of the two holy places”, but also in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Since 1979, the US has been hatching plans to overthrow the ayatollah regime in Iran and return its corporations access to the subsoil in the Iranian highlands. The son of the deposed Iranian Shah Shahzade, Reza Pahlavi, carefully lodges in America and heads the entire “National Council of Iran”, planning the revival of the monarchy under the leadership of the planet’s main democrat – Uncle Sam. For a month and a half, Iran has been shaken by protests that are actively supported from across the ocean.
In short, Iran is another thorn in the side of the United States.
This results in numerous confrontations and tensions with Iran’s neighbors, which are either completely controlled by the United States or mostly loyal to the Americans. Iran’s main enemies in the region are, of course, Israel and Saudi Arabia – two states militarized at the expense of the West, two arms of American policy in the region. Iran is actually at war with Israel in Syria and Palestine with the help of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Iran is actually at war with the US in Syria and Iraq. Iran is actually fighting with the hands of the Houthis with Saudi Arabia in Yemen.
Iran is very sensitive to Erdogan’s pan-Turkist policy, because millions of Turks live in the north of Iran (there are more Azerbaijanis in Iran than in Azerbaijan itself). During the Nagorno-Karabakh war, the Iranians concentrated an entire army on the northern borders and thereby put pressure on Azerbaijan. We must also not forget that the territories of modern Armenia and Azerbaijan until the beginning of the 19th century for a long time were part of the Iranian Empire, which, perhaps, we don’t remember much in Europe, but they don’t forget in Persia itself. There, in general, the interpretation of even well-known facts of history is peculiar. For example, the Iranians perceive the Tehran Allied Conference as an element of the humiliating Anglo-Soviet occupation, although they do not approve of the Shah’s cooperation with Hitler.
Many attributed the rather restrained attitude of the United States towards Erdogan’s imperial ambitions, especially after the unsuccessful coup of 2016, when it would seem that everzthing was decided, solely on the weakness of the United States. But the point here is that the rise of Turkey and aggressive Pan-Turkism are partly beneficial to America. Erdogan’s Turkey, according to the plan of American strategists, serves as an irritating factor for many countries. Turkey threatens Greece and Cyprus in Europe, which seek protection from France and Germany. Turkey threatens Syria in its age-old struggle with the Kurds. Pan-Turkism threatens Russia in the Caucasus, and in general, Turkey is not opposed to encroaching on the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation at the expense of the Turkic peoples of Russia. So Erdogan’s pan-Turkism threatens not only Iran. And the United States is trying to use it according to the “divide and rule” method. True, they are no longer very successful in ruling, but they have mastered how to sow chaos and confrontation.
Thus, due to the specifics of its foreign policy and the complexity of the region, Iran has become a powerful counterforce, primarily against the United States in the Middle East. And the balance of military potentials there is very unstable. The United States can still, at least theoretically, count on a large-scale invasion of Iran similar to the Iraqi campaign, they still count on the fact that the IDF and the Saudi army have sufficient capabilities to contain Iran. But the factor of military-technical cooperation between Iran and the Russian Federation can dramatically change everything.
If Iran strengthens itself through the supply of air defense systems, such as the S-400 and S-500, 4+ generation fighters, and “pulls itself up” in the missile and nuclear sphere, then, firstly, you can forget about the ground operation, and secondly, the technological advantage primarily of Israel will not be so impressive. Iran will fully provide itself with at least a defensive potential, and how it will dispose of the increased military power outside, American analysts are even scared to predict.
Therefore, the supply of “Shahids” has become a rather delicate issue, which, you can be sure, has become a means of pressure on the West. Information has already appeared from our Iranian friends that they “unexpectedly” created a hypersonic ballistic missile. Let me remind you that today only a few countries can boast of such weapons: Russia, China and North Korea. America and Europe are catching up.
Anatoly Shirokoborodov, IA Alternative
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