U.S. and Russian representatives will soon hold a meeting of a commission on the implementation of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), State Department spokesman Ned Price said at a briefing
“We have agreed that the Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC) will meet in the near future under the terms of the START III treaty. The work of the DCCC is confidential, but we do hope that the meeting will be constructive,” he said.
The diplomat did not specify a date and a venue for the talks, only that he saw the upcoming meeting as a signal that the US and Russia retain the ability to engage in dialogue. According to him, Washington’s readiness for contacts with Moscow allegedly demonstrates its commitment to risk reduction and strategic stability.
“Regarding Russia, of course, we are soberly, realistically evaluating the prospect of what dialogue between the United States and Russia may entail and what it will achieve,” he stressed.
He added that the meeting would also discuss the resumption of mutual inspections of nuclear facilities under the treaty.
Russia has also previously confirmed the ongoing talks about organising a meeting of the consultative commission. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova explained at a 29 September briefing that the possibility of holding a face-to-face session of the DCC is being studied.
No concessions
Meanwhile, in his interview with RIA Novosti on November 9, Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov reminded that the dialogue between Moscow and Washington on the START Treaty was earlier suspended by the U.S. side.
“The dialogue on strategic stability launched in 2021, within the framework of which there were discussions of possible agreements to replace the START Treaty, was frozen at the initiative of the American side… It is possible that eventually the administration will wake up and want to negotiate. No one is interested in a legal vacuum between two countries with the largest nuclear arsenals,” he said.
The diplomat stressed that Russia was interested in an equitable and mutually beneficial dialogue on arms control, but was not going to beg the US to come back to the negotiating table. He warned, however, that working out new agreements between the sides could take much longer than in 2010. The more so since Russia is not going to make any unilateral concessions at the expense of its security, the ambassador noted.
“Circumstances have changed fundamentally. The positions of the sides have significantly diverged, new technologies and threats have emerged. The factor of the third nuclear countries is growing in importance,” Antonov explained.
To remind, on April 8, 2010, the presidents of Russia and the US signed a bilateral Treaty about the measures on further reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms that is valid for 10 years. Under the treaty, the US and Russia agreed to reduce their strategic offensive arms so that in seven years after the treaty enters into force and in the future their aggregate number should not exceed 700 deployed ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and heavy bombers (GB), 1550 warheads on them as well as 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers for ICBMs, SLBMs and TBs.
In February 2021, Moscow and Washington extended the agreement for five years without any changes. It will expire on February 5, 2026.
Chasing access
The treaty, in addition to the parties’ obligations to reduce their START, also implies bilateral inspections of nuclear facilities. The countries have the right to conduct up to 18 inspections each year. Their purpose is to confirm the accuracy of declared numbers, types and technical characteristics of non-deployed strategic offensive weapons subject to the treaty, the number of warheads present at deployed START facilities, and information on START conversion or elimination.
Bilateral inspections were suspended by mutual agreement in March 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, data exchanges have continued.
However, Moscow and Washington have not yet resumed inspections. Moreover, the US unilaterally froze the 2022 dialogue on stratostability due to Russia’s announcement of a special military operation in Ukraine. However, Washington argues that inspections should be carried out despite this.
For its part, the Russian side considers them impossible because of the obstacles posed by Western sanctions to Russian delegations. The United States, however, denies this. Due to the insistence of the American side to gain access to the Russian nuclear facilities, Moscow even had to agree to temporarily withdraw them from inspection activities. Such a possibility is allowed by paragraph. I section 5 of chapter five of the protocol to START III.
“The immediate trigger was the notification received from the American side of its intention to conduct an inspection on our territory in the coming days. In the current circumstances, such a step looked, in fact, like a blatant provocation… They tried to put us in front of the fact and conduct an inspection without prior arrangement,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters on 9 August.
Meanwhile, Russia and the U.S. continue exchanging information about the number of their strategic offensive weapons. Thus, in October, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported that another data exchange had taken place. It was stated that as of September 1, Russia had 759 launchers of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers, while the United States had 800 of them. The agency clarified that it does not have the possibility to verify and confirm the statements of the US side about the conversion of a number of their STARTs and objects to arbitrary reclassification of ICBM silos intended for training into the category of “training silos” not covered by the STARTs in order “not to include them in the counted ones”.
A show of goodwill
Experts believe that the current US intensification of interest in the dialogue with Russia on strategic stability can be explained by its intention to force the return of inspections of nuclear facilities. Analysts said the US was worried that it could not control Russia’s nuclear capabilities. In addition, the White House wants to show the world and its own public, tired of constant escalation in the international arena, that it can be constructive if it is profitable.
“In Washington they want to understand what is going on in Russia, and they need renewed inspections to do this, especially since the Americans themselves are lagging behind in a number of areas of weapons development. For example, in hypersonic weapons. In addition, there are now fears that congressional elections might constrain the administration’s ability to establish a dialogue on the START Treaty. This treaty is the brainchild of Democrats, that’s why they want to create groundwork for further work in this area and not let Republicans block the process,” RAS Center for Security Studies researcher Konstantin Blokhin explained in an interview with RT.
In turn, Yury Rogulyov, director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for U.S. Studies at Moscow State University, suggested to RT that the administration is trying to compensate the public for its lack of success on other international issues with its statements about opportunities for dialogue with Russia, despite all the circumstances. Washington wants to show itself as the party capable of goodwill gestures and dialogue, the analyst noted.
“Not without reason a number of officials stated shortly before that contacts with Moscow had not been interrupted, that negotiations on some directions are still under way. And now there is also information about an imminent meeting of the consultative commission. However, one should not fully expect that the White House is ready to resume a meaningful and substantive conversation. I believe they will take further steps only after they understand what the congressional balance of power is,” the expert stressed.
According to Vadim Koziulin, head of the Center for Global Studies and International Relations at the IAMP of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy, the main problem in resuming the StratDialogue may be the intention to mix the discussion on the START Treaty with the situation in Ukraine. However, he said, Washington should understand that in this case no conversation with Russia will be possible, as Moscow will not waste time on this.
“However, the fact that the initiative comes from the American side is encouraging. It means they can make an effort to hear Russia’s position. We have repeatedly declared that we are in favour of an equal and mutually beneficial dialogue,” the analyst told RT.
The expert noted that the United States should realize that strategic stability cannot be sacrificed to its own ambitions.
“In the U.S., against the background of the nuclear rhetoric unfolding today, they begin to understand it. The situation in the world is getting tenser and tenser, and at least some sort of détente is needed. The more so because Russia has already proved that it can and is ready to defend its interests. I think the world would breathe a sigh of relief if the two nuclear powers could find some common ground,” Koziulin concluded.
Polina Dukhanova, Alyona Medvedeva, RT