Despite several failed attempts to take Kherson, Kyiv is preparing for a new offensive
On November 7, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic called the battle for Kherson decisive in the conflict in Ukraine.
“We have a difficult time ahead of us. Next winter will be even more difficult than this one, because we are facing the “Battle of Stalingrad” – the decisive battle in Ukraine, the battle for Kherson, in which both sides use thousands of tanks, aircraft, artillery,” Vučić said on the air of the TV channel Pink.
The Serbian President noted that each of the parties to the conflict has its own reasons for staying in Kherson. Kyiv wants to return the lost lands, the West hopes that the “battle of Kherson” will weaken Moscow and put Kyiv in a better position in hypothetical peace negotiations, and Russia intends to defend its new territories.
The positions of the RF Armed Forces on the right bank of the Dnieper, including Kherson, are a well-equipped military foothold. From it, according to military experts, if necessary, you can launch an offensive towards Nikolaev and Odessa. It allows the Russian army to protect the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, which Kyiv has been trying to destroy since Kherson finally came under Russian control. After the referenda, Kherson became a symbol of the special operation, so many experts are of the opinion that the city should not be left in any case, since it now has not only strategic and political significance, but also moral and psychological for all those who support Operation Z.
Since the summer, Kyiv has repeatedly declared the need to capture Kherson. The Ukrainian side has repeatedly emphasized that it will start negotiations only after the Kherson region again comes under the control of Kyiv. In Washington’s mind, the city is important both diplomatically and strategically. American General Hodges called Kherson the key to Crimea, noting that by capturing this city, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will gain control over the North Crimean Canal and will be able to put pressure on the Crimeans. In addition, having occupied Kherson, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to use HIMARS to strike at Russian air bases and supply depots within a radius of 80 kilometers.
This data is enough to understand why the Armed Forces of Ukraine are eager to attack the city and why a serious line of defense is now built there.
While Kyiv announced an attack on Kherson during the summer, the Russian Armed Forces set up defensive lines there and deployed additional forces there. At the moment, the Russian military continues to build a layered defense line, deploying additional forces to the region.
According to open sources, the Russian command is working to create a major defense line in Kherson. The city, from which the local residents were evacuated, is gradually being turned into an impregnable fortress, creating special defensive structures and additional lines of resistance, preparing for a possible offensive by the UAF militants.
Taking into account the state of the Ukrainian army, it is very difficult to take the city in a hurry, so the enemy chose a different tactic.
The Ukrainian military is trying to probe the line of defense in the Kherson direction, which may indicate that an imminent denouement is approaching.
Since the end of summer, Kyiv has not stopped trying to capture Kherson. And, despite the fact that a huge amount of resources is spent on this, so far the Ukrainian army has not been able to get closer to its goal.
The first attempt, which took place on August 29, resulted in the loss of more than 560 troops. Also, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 26 tanks, 23 infantry fighting vehicles, nine other armored combat vehicles and two Su-25 aircraft. According to military expert Konstantin Sivkov, the fire superiority of the Russian army played a big role:
“They couldn’t even come within range of portable small arms, were destroyed by artillery at long range, after which they were driven back.”
In September, for three days of the second wave of the offensive, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine exceeded two thousand people.
Already after heavy losses on September 4, the Ukrainian army pulled up reserves to the Posad-Pokrovsky region of the Kherson region. The enemy launched an offensive in the triangle of Ternovye Pody – Zeleny Guy – Blagodatnoye, but due to heavy fire from Russian artillery, they again had to retreat. At the same time, the RF Armed Forces captured the company commander of the 59th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a group of soldiers. On September 7, according to the RF Ministry of Defense, the fighters of the 57th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who were stationed near Nikolaev and Kherson, deserted due to heavy losses. On September 13, new information was received about the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kherson, and then the number of irretrievable losses approached the mark of 3,500 people.
In mid-September, the enemy transferred more than ten tanks and fifteen armored vehicles to the Bereznegovatoy area, which indicated preparations for a new offensive. It was noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could attack the positions of the RF Armed Forces near the village of Pravdino, as well as try to hit Snigirevka and capture the highway to Kherson. It was also assumed that the Kinburn Spit in the Kherson region would be attacked.
On September 17, the Armed Forces of Ukraine abandoned two companies, supported by nine tanks and 16 armored fighting vehicles of the 28th mechanized brigade, in the hope of seizing positions near the village of Pravdino. This attempt again ended in failure: 120 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, seven tanks and 13 infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed.
In the same days, military experts started talking about the fact that the enemy is making many more attempts to break through the defense than is covered in the media.
“Dozens of attacks are made daily on the line of contact. It seems that the enemy is testing, looking for weaknesses”, says Alexei Leonkov.
By September 19, the RF Armed Forces repelled attacks in the area of Belogorka, Malaya Seydeminukha and Miroliubovka in the Kherson region, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine again suffered losses and left about a thousand people in the fields.
In early October, two battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed near the village of Dudchany, Kherson region, while trying to break through to Russian positions along the banks of the Dnieper. On October 8, information was received that Kyiv began to draw up reserves to the Kherson and Zaporozhye directions. However, already on October 12, the RF Ministry of Defense reported on repelling an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of the settlements of Kostromka and Ishchenko in the Kherson region, during which the enemy lost about 90 fighters.
On the same day, in connection with the strengthening of the group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, standing near Kherson, the city authorities announced the evacuation of the local population.
Since October 22, the media have been talking about the fact that Kyiv plans to flood Kherson by blasting the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, since it is impossible to take the city by storm. In the following days, information was received about numerous attacks by mobile groups on the positions of the RF Armed Forces, which were repulsed. On October 26, the RF Armed Forces repelled a series of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Davydov Brod near Kherson.
On October 27, the Office of the President of Ukraine Zelensky noted that the situation near Kherson is changing in an unpleasant direction for Kyiv. An adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine, Arestovich, pointed out that the Russian Armed Forces deployed an additional six battalion tactical groups, and now it will be even more difficult for the Ukrainian army to operate in the Kherson region. After Arestovich’s speech, other problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to be revealed. There were reports that the operational command “South” postponed the offensive scheduled for late October at the junction of the Kherson and Nikolaev regions due to a shortage of foreign 155-mm guns.
To date, the situation near Kherson remains difficult. According to some reports, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still planning an offensive in the Berislav direction, for which they can use small infantry units. Considering that in recent months the Ukrainian army has lost many BTR-70s and BTR-80s necessary for the offensive, they can be replaced by French VAB armored personnel carriers and British Husky TSV armored vehicles. These vehicles are 90% equipped with the 28th brigade, the 60th infantry brigade and the 46th brigade of the Airborne Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Experts note that guessing in this case is a thankless task. There is an assumption that the announced offensive is caused primarily by the political considerations of Kyiv, and not by the real readiness of the military, who have been requesting new tanks from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for weeks. Some sources claim that Zelensky set the UAF the task of conducting an offensive before November 15, when the G20 summit in Bali begins. Considering that haste has never been in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, one can only guess what a new attempt at a “lightning offensive” can lead to.
Sergey Andreev, LIFE
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