The President of Ukraine once again spoke about the possibility of negotiations with Russia. However, Vladimir Zelensky did not say anything new
The terms of the dialogue he voiced include “restoration of territorial integrity, respect for the UN Charter, compensation for all losses caused by the war, punishment of every war criminal and guarantees that this will not happen again.” Well, a few hours later, Kyiv, represented by NSDC Secretary Alexei Danilov, once again called on the West to supply additional weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
So this speech by Zelensky is interesting not so much for its content that everyone has already been fed up with, but for its entourage, since it was made in a situation of a sharp intensification of discussion in the Western – both European and overseas – information field of the need and inevitability of a dialogue with Moscow.
A variety of leaks about the undercover work going in this direction are leaking into the media. In particular, a lot of noise was made by the information from The Wall Street Journal that US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has been in confidential contact with Russian Presidential Assistant for Foreign Affairs Yuri Ushakov and Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev for several months. Moreover, Sullivan actually confirmed this information, specifying that the purpose of the interaction was to reduce the risks of using nuclear weapons.
At the same time, the significance of this particular event should not be exaggerated. Washington is currently ruled by “hawks” (such as Secretary of State Anthony Blinken), and Sullivan, who is more correctly called not even a “dove” but simply a pragmatist, is largely removed from the process of developing and making decisions.
Nevertheless, it would be wrong to dismiss the latest news as irrelevant and unimportant chatter. On the contrary, what is happening is extremely interesting, since right now one can observe, if not a turning point, but already a completely clear increase in the activity and positions of supporters of reducing the escalation.
Yesterday, La Stampa shared a landmark insider, according to which the Vatican is ready to provide its territory and mediation services for negotiations. By the way, the Russian ambassador to the Vatican noted the assistance of the Pope in the exchange of prisoners.
An interesting leak was also issued by La Repubblica: supposedly Washington and Brussels are setting Kyiv up for negotiations with Moscow after the “recapture” of Kherson. The logic of this position is not very clear: why would Zelensky and Co. go to negotiations, even “from a position of strength”, in case of military success? But the very fact of such rumors goes into the treasury of evidence that peacekeeping sentiments are maturing and intensifying on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
It would be a huge mistake to consider these sentiments as pro-Russian, and they can be called peacekeeping rather conditionally. The point is different – that in the West, in certain circles, the process of awareness and, more importantly, acceptance of reality begins.
In Russia, a lot is being written about the economic problems that are sweeping the Western world. However, one should not exaggerate their current scale. The crisis has hit mainly the most vulnerable and the poorest segments of the population, but they are still a minority in the countries concerned. The European and American middle classes have not yet felt the hardships. Expenses, of course, have grown, but not critically, and there is still a margin of safety. Plus, someone else has contracts with the old utility tariffs, and somewhere the state has included mechanisms for social protection and price containment for the population.
The problem is different: all these measures taken and planned are like applying plantain to a severe bullet wound. And if a prosperous Western citizen can afford not to worry too much about the future, hoping that the situation will somehow get better, then the depth of the abyss begins to reach the local (especially European) establishment, on the brink of which they balance.
Yes, apparently, the West will get through this winter – not without difficulties, but still without any special cataclysms. But its elites found themselves in a long-forgotten and extremely unusual situation for themselves, when they are forced to think about what will happen next winter – and its prospects are already frightening.
Three decades of global hegemony have had a detrimental effect on the quality of expertise and decision-making in the West. In particular, this led to the fact that the planning horizon there in most cases was reduced to several months (maximum – a year), and the printing press became the solution to any problems.
This year has changed everything: the dollar machine is failing before our eyes, events in the world are not developing at all according to the scenario that was planned, further prospects look frankly gloomy – and there are no resources to overcome the worsening crisis.
In February, the West put all its chips on one main card – the victory over Russia, which, if successful, would then allow it to transfer one by one all the other centers of resistance to its hegemony in the world. However, November is in the yard – and everything is not going at all as it should.
Russia continues to withstand unprecedented pressure — and does not suffer much in this regard. Continental Europe has begun to realize the role of the sacrificial lamb destined for it and even begins to timidly voice objections to this in places. In Britain, this is the third prime minister in a year, and the previous two, in their super ambitions and the fight against Russia, almost completely ruined the national economy. The States have their own rattles: the results of two years of Biden’s presidency in the form of the results of the midterm elections today and the next few days will be discussed by the whole world.
In general, it is not surprising that recently seditious thoughts began to creep into the heads of a part of the Western elites – both about the unhappy state of affairs inside their countries right now, and about even more severe prospects, and about the lack of simple solutions, and even – oh horror! – about the fact that, probably, we will have to negotiate with Moscow.
Looking at this from Russia, one should not get inspired and hope for a quick resolution of the conflict. On the contrary, we can confidently say that this will not happen.
But the change of mindset that has begun in the West is useful for Russia in at least two ways. First, by the fact that it introduces a split into the hitherto consolidated position of Russia’s opponents, which for Russians creates a space for additional opportunities. And secondly, staying in a country of illusions about the inviolability of the Western leadership of people who control the global financial system and nuclear buttons is simply dangerous. And the more actively the process of sobering up the Western establishment goes, the better. For all.
Irina Alksnis, RIA
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