American students joke that exams are the only way to learn something, if only for a few days. This saying is also true to describe the election
Every two years the world learns about the driving forces behind US politics – the agenda, the donors, the interest groups, the candidates. Midterm elections are notable also due to the fact that they occur at the equator of presidential term, and therefore this is an opportunity for the White House to assess the popularity of its policies among the people and the capacity of its opponents, to draw (or not) appropriate conclusions and try to make a powerful statement in two more years – already at the presidential election.
Early in the campaign, it was clear that the outcome would be determined by the parties’ ability to convince voters that they were better able than their opponents to deal with five key issues: the economy, immigration, crime, civil liberties and Trump’s legacy.
The Republicans’ starting position looked more winnable. Biden’s approval ratings for president are in the region of 40%. Historically, the ruling party is on the defensive in the midterm elections, responsible for the state of the country in general and the economy in particular. If the polls are to be believed, it is high inflation that worries Americans most in the current campaign – 30% of registered voters say so. By comparison, illegal immigration and crime, which tied for second and third place on the list of the most urgent topics, worried 5% and 4% of citizens respectively.
Not that Republicans have much voter confidence in economic management, but this is a case where you can score points on Democrats’ mistakes. “If Biden says his plan to shake up the economy is working and prices are rising and living standards are falling, is that what was intended?” – pro-Republican TV channels sneer.
But on two other significant topics, voter confidence in Republicans is higher. 40% are willing to trust them to handle illegal immigration, compared with 32% of Democrats. There is a similar confidence gap on the topic of crime: 39% of voters think only Republicans can clean up, while 30% think Democrats can do the same. The progressive agenda of Defund the police, which demands less funding for law enforcement, is playing against the Democrats in this election. The left wing of the party believes that the police is one of the most racist institutions in America and therefore needs to be reformed. Republicans, however, not unreasonably point to increased crime in states and cities where police funding has already been cut, and nod to candidates who support such policies – say, vote for them, and your children will not be safe.
Another story – the fight against illegal immigration – is also not without its flamboyant statements and actions: the governors of Florida and Texas are sending busloads of illegal immigrants to wealthy parts of the northern states, the fiefdoms of the Democrats. It is true that the southern states are the first to receive illegals and therefore feel the problem more acutely than others. But it is also true that immigration is traditionally one of the major subjects in the presidential race, so it is hardly a coincidence that radical and populist measures are being taken by Republican governors with presidential ambitions – Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida.
Democrats are trying to shift the public debate to issues where they feel more confident – the topic of abortion rights – and are sharpening the issue to the max: they say Republicans want to take away your right to make independent decisions about your health, family planning, freedom of choice. Unlike the economy and crime, this is not an “every day” issue, but its obvious emotional fervour has prompted some Republican candidates to opt for a slightly less belligerent tone and more conciliatory policies. Others, like one of the top Republican stars in this election, Senator Ron Johnson (Wisconsin), an ardent opponent of abortion, by contrast, are using this topic to strengthen their “nuclear” electorate.
The Democrats also have another bargaining chip, but it is more relevant for the Senate than for the House of Representatives. Because 1/3 of the Senate is elected every two years, one party has to defend more seats than the other. This time the Republicans will have to defend 21 seats in the Senate, the Democrats 14. Even mathematically, the Republicans have a better chance of losing their existing Senate presence.
There are other intrigues in the Senate race: the Republicans are defending seats in significant so-called swing states where Trump once won – North Carolina, Florida and Ohio – and in states where he lost minimally – Pennsylvania (1.17% gap to Biden) and Wisconsin (0.63% gap). A win in these could now be seen as a return of demand for Trump. On the other hand, for the same reason, the outcome in the vacant seats in the states where Biden won minimally is interesting: Arizona (0.31% victory over Trump), Nevada (2.39%) and Georgia (0.23%).
A small deviation from the presidential race and the Republicans could win as many as five Senate seats. In contrast to the House of Representatives, an elephants majority in the Senate seems unlikely, but if it happens, the promised revenge for impeaching Trump in the form of impeachment of Biden cannot be ruled out. However, even control of the House of Representatives is enough to cause serious inconvenience to the Biden administration two years before the end of the presidential term and put a damper on key Democrat legislative initiatives.
Maxim Suchkov, Izvestia newspaper