The US Congress elections begin tomorrow, November 8, and they may have crucial implications for Ukraine
By all accounts, Biden’s opponents, the Republican Party, are winning, and they are increasingly voicing calls to cut or even cut off funding for the Kiev regime. The US political elite is at odds over the money allocated to Ukraine.
A war of attrition. This is exactly what most experts believe the Russian Federation is now doing in Ukraine. Relying on the huge difference between Russian and Ukrainian capabilities (economic, military, mobilisation, etc.), Moscow is not forcing things at the front – while at the same time systematically knocking out Ukrainian arms and energy infrastructure.
Of course, this tactic will only fully work if Ukrainian capabilities are not constantly replenished at the expense of Western countries and, above all, the United States. It would seem that this condition is not feasible – Western countries regularly allocate new money and weapons to Ukraine to fight the Russian Federation. US and EU leaders talk about the need to support Ukraine until the end (in their understanding, victorious).
However, the situation may change in the coming days – after the expected victory of the Republican Party in the midterm elections for Congress and the start of the new Congress in 2023. A Congress where there will be politicians who believe that the Biden administration is dealing with the wrong country.
“The US is not an ATM.”
“The Democrats have flung our border wide open, but the only border they care about is Ukraine, not the southern part of America. Under the Republicans, Ukraine won’t get a penny! Our country is more important,” says Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green to voters in Iowa.
It is not about suspending aid. That would be too drastic a step for the US. However, there will be many Republican members of Congress who are quite skeptical about the US financial support for the Ukrainian regime. Conventionally they are called Trumpists. “A Republican victory in the House of Representatives would give the ‘America First’ wing (which advocates reducing foreign interventions) more voice and potentially more weight,” The Hill explains.
“If Ukraine and Russia continue to go to war for two, three, four years – are we supposed to send $50 billion every quarter to maintain the conflict?” – asks Garrett Bess, vice-president of the lobbying arm of Heritage Action (an entity affiliated with the Heritage Foundation, the largest pro-Republican think tank).
“The Biden administration has no right to keep asking us to write blank checks to Ukraine at a time when the American people are struggling with soaring inflation and the national debt has hit $31 trillion,” outraged Congressman Chip Roy.
“Unless the Russians decide to pack their bags and head home, I think there will be constant requests for help,” says Republican member of the House of Representatives Scott Perry. – We all want to help. But at the same time, as you know, we have unresolved problems in our own country and we have absolutely no idea what the (Biden’s) administration is going to do. So where are we going? Is our taxpayers’ money being spent wisely?” As Congresswoman Lauren Bowbert points out, “Joseph Biden doesn’t understand that we are the United States, not an ATM.”
“Republicans were generally supportive of Ukraine, but questioned everything about it, from how the aid was used to whether or not non-military goods should be delivered. This was questioned by both party fringe groups and the conservative mainstream,” writes The Hill.
People opposed
Part of this stance by part of the Republican elite is linked to the opinion of the party electorate. According to a Pew poll in September, Americans were far more sceptical about the prospect of continuing to sponsor Kiev than they were in March.
And in principle, according to another poll, only 29 per cent of Republicans (compared with 56 per cent of Democrats) believe the US has a “duty” to help Ukraine. “Ordinary Republican voters (perhaps influenced by messages from former President Donald Trump and Fox News’ Tucker Carlson) are imbued with the idea that US aid is a waste of money that would be better spent on domestic issues,” the Washington Post editorial board is outraged. And new polls show growing support for the Republican Party after promises not to give money to Ukraine.
Democratic Senator Chris Murphy has pointed out that Joseph Biden’s position plays a role in the anti-Ukrainian sentiments of some Republican leaders. The Republicans are now preparing to sink the current administration on all fronts (in order to finally sink the Democratic Party along with it by the 2024 elections). Which means that if Biden actively supports Ukraine, Republicans should criticise him for that support.
Either gently (i.e. by saying that the money should be strictly controlled – as the probable future Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Michael McCaul says) or harshly (by explicitly saying that the money should be allocated not to Ukraine but to the USA).
Unsurprisingly, they are already clashing with those who advocate total support for Ukraine on this topic. After the Republican congressman Kevin McCarthy (who is expected to become the Speaker of the State House in case of the Republicans’ victory) said that the Americans will not give Ukraine blank checks in case of the recession, even President Joe Biden responded. The White House boss accused the Republicans of being ignorant of foreign policy, that not only Ukraine is at stake, but the entire Eastern Europe, as well as the fate of NATO.
Some Republicans decided to prove to Biden that they do – and sided with the current administration. “America’s future security and key interests will be determined by the outcome of this fight. And anyone concerned about the price paid in support of a Ukrainian victory should consider a far greater price if Ukraine is defeated,” said current Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell.
What is interesting is that Mitch McConnell probably has the highest anti-rating not only among the Republican tops, but among all party leaders. It is -39% (19.8% of voters have a positive view of his figure and 58.8% a negative one). By comparison, McCarthy has it at 13.3% (30% of voters like him, 43.3% do not).
The tiff between McConnell and McCarthy showed that one should not expect the support for Ukraine to stop altogether if the Republicans win. However, progress would already be a reduction in itself – both in open support and in coercion of American allies. “If the Republicans take Congress in the midterm elections, the US will cease to be a force calling on the entire West to support Ukraine. And then Europe should be ready to act on its own,” writes Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform in London.
The only question is, how exactly will Europe act? Would German Chancellor Olaf Scholz cut corners in supplying arms to Ukraine if the American diktat were to be replaced by the British-Polish one? The question seems to be rhetorical.
Gevorg Mirzayan, associate professor at the Finance University, Vzglyad