Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has for the second week now insisted that “Western partners” supply air defence systems. And at the same time manages to make claims to those who refuse to do so
Israel is now in Kiev’s disfavour. According to Zelensky, when partners discuss aid and how best to close the skies over Ukraine, “the words ‘Israel’ and ‘Israeli’ are not heard. Nor will they,” he was told in Tel Aviv.
Limit ourselves to a warning system
Strictly speaking, Kiev does have cause for discontent. Israel has been saying “no” to it quite firmly since February. Of course, it provides humanitarian aid generously and accepts refugees. But it refuses to supply weapons, let alone air defence systems.
The sides have more or less come to terms with this state of affairs. But then Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Nachman Shai sprinkled paraffin on the fire and heatedly stated that Israel must begin to provide military assistance to Ukraine. The deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitriy Medvedev, warned that this would be a rash move and would destroy relations between Moscow and Tel Aviv. As a result, the other day several Israeli officials once again turned down their Ukrainian counterparts.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba heard from Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid “deep concern,” although before he did so he threatened a note demanding supplies. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov did not get through to his Israeli counterpart Beni Gantz the first time only to hear once again: Tel Aviv will not supply arms. But Ganz did promise something. He said that Israel would help to develop a civilian early warning system. Which, naturally, did not satisfy Kiev, and they asked to give at least systems that could shoot down drones.
“Israel is not supplying Ukraine with air defence, weapons and much more of what they are asking for because it maintains a position of neutrality. And that involves not getting involved in other people’s wars. Especially if it can end badly,” says Yevgeniy Satanovskiy, president of the Institute of Middle East Studies.
A community of 600 thousand
Israeli Ambassador Michael Brodsky explained the situation to Ukrainians in a more lucid way. He told on the air about “red lines” and that in case of escalation no one would intercede for the Promised Land. “We are not a member of NATO,” he reminded. – The countries that provide the most military assistance to Ukraine are the countries that are members of NATO and are covered by NATO protection. Israel, on the other hand, is trying to fight terror alone. Israel has won all wars that have occurred in the Middle East with little or no help from other countries.”
Then there was a short political update on the situation in the Middle East, which today is “not the calmest region”, and grim prospects for the deterioration of the situation. Plus a reminder that after 2015, when the Russian contingent arrived in Syria, Tel Aviv cannot discount Moscow’s position.
Finally, there is another important factor. “There are multi-layered, multi-dimensional ties between Israel and Russia. Russia has a very large Jewish community, some 600,000 people. We cannot ignore the well-being of this community when we make certain decisions about Russia. I would describe this dialogue as difficult, but obligatory for Israel and very important for Israeli security,” the ambassador explained.
Dialogue with Russia to become more active?
But Kiev is still hoping that the Israeli authorities’ position may change after the Knesset elections on November 1. It is the fifth parliamentary election in three years. With 120 seats in the Knesset, it is necessary to have at least 61 votes to form a coalition. And Alexander Zinker, head of Israel’s International Expert Center for Electoral Systems (ICES), is confident that any winner will focus only on the security of its citizens.
Most likely, Likud, led by former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, will take the majority. But the bloc of change, headed by incumbent Prime Minister Yair Lapid, stands a good chance, although he is unlikely to put together a coalition. Another contender for the prime minister’s chair is that same Defense Minister Beni Gantz. His “State Camp” could take 10-12 mandates and participate in a coalition.
“Regardless of whether “right-wing” or “left-wing” is in power, the basic thrust of Israeli policy has not changed dramatically,” says Alexander Zinker. – When Netanyahu was prime minister he and President Putin had what is called a ‘chemistry’, a good rapport. It is quite possible that if Netanyahu comes back to power the new government will take a more definite position in the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine and the dialogue with Russia will become more active.
And, by the way, anyone involved in this election understands that it is definitely not worth quarrelling with Moscow. Firstly, the weapons sent to Ukraine may end up in the wrong hands. The fact is that Kiev has long been suspected of trading arms on the black market, and the buyer may inadvertently turn out to be the same Iran, which is hostile to Israel. And secondly, Russia, in return for supplying, for example, air defense systems, may also provide missiles to Israel’s “sworn friends”. And then the missile would hit its target not just with one out of a hundred homemade rockets, but with 50. Do they need it?
Yevgeniy Maslov, AiF