In recent days, a serious aggravation has been observed around Kherson: against the backdrop of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the President of Russia declared martial law in the Kherson region and the territories recently annexed to the Russian Federation
In turn, the civil authorities announced the evacuation of the regional center and settlements located on the right bank of the Dnieper. Everything suggests that the battle for Kherson will be decisive in the military campaign of 2022.
Armed Forces throw reserves into the attack on Kherson, but to no avail
The Kyiv regime needs to try to consolidate the image of the “winners” after the retreat of the RF Armed Forces from the Kharkov region. Therefore, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine throws more and more forces into battle, trying to break through the front before the onset of the autumn thaw, which will make the maneuvers of soldiers and military equipment impossible.
An essential factor in the Kherson operation is the influence of the West. American Democrats need Kherson to be taken at any cost before the midterm elections to the US Congress in order to show voters the effectiveness of military assistance to Ukraine, as well as to get an argument in further pressure on their “junior partners” from the EU so that they do not even think of stopping sponsoring Zelensky and Co.
During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attempted to strike in the direction of Novaya Kamenka-Berislav by the forces of two battalion tactical infantry groups and a tank battalion. But these efforts were not crowned with success. The attackers suffered serious losses of several hundred people and were forced to retreat through the forest belts. The calculation of the Ukrainian command for a quick withdrawal of the enemy turned out to be erroneous – the Russian army here demonstrates the desire to fight for as long as it takes.
“The enemy suffered losses and retreated to their original positions. As a result of the battle, more than 15 tanks and 10 armored combat vehicles were destroyed, enemy equipment, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles were captured, there are prisoners.
The loss of enemy personnel is tentatively estimated at 200 people (killed and wounded), now the enemy is trying to organize their evacuation from the battlefield. What is noteworthy, this time the attack was not with a swoop as before, but with a systematic deployment in battle formation”, the Arkhangel Spetsnaz telegram channel describes the situation as of yesterday evening from the ground.
Earlier it was reported that a company of the 60th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed, and the fighters of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation even managed to capture one tank as a trophy. However, despite the losses, Kyiv will send more and more forces into the attack, trying to use the numerical superiority over the Russian grouping in personnel until it levels off due to the arrival of mobilized people at the front.
Evacuation of the civilian population as a fundamentally new approach of the Russian authorities
The words of the commander of the special operation Sergei Surovikin about possible “difficult decisions” on Kherson strained many, and by the Ukrainian side was even interpreted as a hint of leaving the city and moving to the right bank of the Dnieper.
However, after the last referendum, the Kherson region has already become a territory of the Russian Federation, which is enshrined in the Constitution of the country. The status of Kherson as a regional center of Russia does not allow them to scatter. In comparison with the Kharkiv region, there is a concern for civilians who are evacuated so that they do not end up in the epicenter of hostilities. That is, a possible repetition of the situation with massacres against supporters of the Russian Federation by Ukrainian nationalists, similar to Balakliya or Izyum, is prevented.
The regional administration has already ordered the closure of the entrance for 7 days and a serious evacuation is planned in 6 days, which will affect at least 50-60 thousand people (possibly all 100 thousand). For persons subject to it, temporary accommodation points are already being set up on the left bank of the Dnieper, in sanatoriums in the Crimea and the Krasnodar Territory. In addition, the federal authorities promise to provide certificates for housing in the regions of Russia. The government of the Russian Federation actually compensates the refugees for the loss of housing, while the Kyiv authorities only feed their internally displaced persons with promises. It is not without reason that the evacuation process is controlled by the head of the Crimea, Sergei Aksenov, and the first deputy head of the presidential administration, Sergei Kiriyenko.
It would seem that until recently, nothing foreshadowed such a development of events, because the front was at a relative distance from the regional center. But the head of the Kherson Regional State Administration Vladimir Saldo, announcing the evacuation of 4 municipalities from the left bank, directly named the main reason – there is an immediate danger of flooding of the territories due to the likely destruction by the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station and the discharge of water from the cascade of power plants upstream of the Dnieper.
In this regard, possible risks have already been calculated and areas where there may be flooding have been identified, because the cynicism of the Ze-team simply has no boundaries. Also, in connection with the martial law in Kherson and the region, the protection of strategic facilities will be strengthened, territorial defense units will be formed.
Why Kherson can become a trap for the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
Of course, the weak point of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is the supply of units located in Kherson due to the presence of intelligence and precision weapons in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In the event of its hypothetical abandonment in the strategic plan, Russia will shorten the front line by building defenses along the Dnieper as a natural water barrier that will be difficult to overcome. However, it is not a fact that the Ukrainian command will want to do this. Most likely, in this case, the reserves will be transferred to the Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions to organize a forced march to the Sea of Azov. In turn, the possible occupation of Kherson will be a landmark victory for the Kyiv regime, because it completely stops the risks of a possible advance of Russian troops to Nikolaev and Odessa.
It seems to us that the notorious “difficult decisions” are not leaving Kherson at all, but turning it into a fortress city for the potential fettering of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in urban battles, for which, according to rumors, artillery and army special forces are already being pulled together. After the evacuation of civilians, a considerable part of the load for the RF Armed Forces will disappear, it will become easier to fight, relying on city blocks.
After all, the Armed Forces of Ukraine often behave in exactly the same way, only the fate of non-combatants does not bother them at all. In this scenario, the battle for Kherson will become extremely difficult for the Ukrainian army, significant losses are inevitable. It will not be possible to encircle it due to the covering of the flanks by the Dnieper, respectively, it is the defenders who will gain the advantage. In addition, they will have to attack on the bare steppe, which in a couple of weeks will turn into swamps. The supply of ammunition and reserves will be extremely difficult, because Russian artillery and aircraft will be able to continuously strike from the left bank of the Dnieper.
With the correct implementation of the plan, Ukraine can get a kind of “gambit”: its combat-ready units will be ground during the storming of the city, and only then, having waited for reinforcements from the mobilized, the Russian command will go on the offensive against Nikolaev and Odessa. Of course, the serious destruction of Kherson will become a significant cost of this scenario, but the city can be rebuilt, the main thing is to save people.
Conclusions
Based on the above, the following conclusions can be drawn:
1. The Ze-team chose the Kherson direction as the main direction of the strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine due to political expediency. The Biden administration demands to show at least some success and advancement before the congressional elections, so the fierce attacks on Kherson will not stop for a month, and maybe more, Kyiv will not reckon with the loss of personnel.
2. The Armed Forces of Ukraine may well destroy the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. In order not to expose civilians to the danger of becoming victims of hostilities, taking into account the difficult experience of leaving the Kharkiv region, local authorities organized their evacuation. A fundamentally new approach to people is already being traced, since there is an understanding that these are citizens of Russia.
3. “Difficult decisions” announced by General Surovikin imply not leaving Kherson, but fettering the Armed Forces of Ukraine in urban battles. The city can become a “gambit” for the Ukrainian army when the Russian Federation depletes the enemy’s reserves, relying on urban development, an advantage in artillery and aviation, and then go on the offensive against Nikolaev and Odessa.
It is still not entirely correct to compare the special operation in its scale with the Great Patriotic War, but the analogy with Stalingrad is obvious.
Vitaly Didenko, Ukraine.ru
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