The Ukrainian offensive on Kherson has failed. The enemy encountered determined resistance and lost a significant number of personnel and equipment. The number of Ukrainian troops in the Kherson direction amounted to 60 thousand people, ours – about forty thousand
Was it an attempt to conduct a general offensive? It is doubtful. Because the terrain in Northern Tavria is flat, and any movement of a large number of troops immediately provokes artillery and aviation strikes against them. Rather, it was an attempt at large-scale reconnaissance by combat. What if the Russian forces waver? What if they retreated, as they did from Izyum and Kupyansk?
They did not waver and did not retreat. And the significant advance in the Kharkiv region was not due to the outstanding combat skills of the AFU, but due to the decision of the Russian command. I do not mean to say that the Ukranians are fighting badly – they are not. Both the combat experience gained by their army and the advanced equipment provided by Western countries have their effect. And the training of Ukrainians in the UK should not be discounted – they are trained there not so much in combat as in the ability to handle western systems of secure communication and coordination on the battlefield. Take away the communications and internet from the Ukranians and the AFU’s ability to resist the Russians would diminish manifold.
In the meantime, the Kiev regime is trying to exploit its technical and quantitative advantage. They do not have much time – Russia is reinforcing its contingent not only by regular mobilization, but also by formation of reinforced battalion-tactical groups. Russian civil society is enlisting massively in support of their troops. Social movements are providing soldiers with technical means of communication and intelligence. And the structures of the Russian Ministry of Defence will have to improve and modernise their work one way or another. Ukraine began this process earlier, Russia later. But Russia, of course, has more prospects of completing this process with victory.
That is why the Ukrainian leadership and its Western handlers will force the fighting in the near future. They understand that Russia will inevitably increase the quantity and quality of its military forces, so they will try to achieve maximum success before that happens.
The southern – Kherson and Melitopol directions are important in terms of the possibility of supplying Russian troops from the Crimea and the very connection of the Crimea with the mainland through the “land corridor”. But striking the southern grouping and reaching the borders with Crimea (and thus automatically getting into battles with Russia in Crimea, where many troops, and above all aviation and air defence, are stationed, Ukraine cannot yet. So, the Ukrops will hit Donbass. Moreover, they are now emboldened by the capture of eastern Kharkiv Region – Kupiansk and Izyum.
After the capture of Liman, the AFU faces two towns belonging to the LNR – Svatovo and Kreminna. Directly behind Kremenna is the Lisichansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration, which “backs up” Kremenna. Beyond Svatove there is only Starobelsk. After which it is possible to move towards Luhansk, making an attempt to cut off and surround all our troops defending the Lysychansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration. A strike on Svatovo is therefore most likely.
This is also confirmed by our intelligence data. According to them, the Ukrrop have concentrated 35-40 thousand of their fighters in the Svatove direction. The intelligence data even speaks of specific dates when the attack began – I will not cite them here for obvious reasons. I will only say that there are constant attempts by the AFU to conduct reconnaissance in this area, which are repelled by our fighters. After the withdrawal of troops from Kupyansk and Izyum, as well as from Liman, we have created quite a strong line here.
Perhaps it is to help the Ukrainians crack our defences that the Pentagon is rushing military supplies to Poland. Several heavy transport aircraft of Atlas Air and Kalitta Air, chartered by the Pentagon, have already landed at Rzeszow, Poland, 90 km from the Ukrainian border. The Dutch air force’s CC-130J Hercules military transporter has also arrived there.
The cargoes brought in by the NATOs will soon go through transport corridors to the territory under the control of the Kiev regime. If we want our Kherson and Svatov groups to hold out, the transport hubs in Western Ukraine must be destroyed. Better yet, destroy the military cargoes in parallel, before they are delivered and deployed.
Alexey Selivanov, PolitNavigator