“The United States is an Arctic nation, and we believe we have a responsibility to manage and protect this region,” State Department adviser Derek H. Chollet said with aplomb at a briefing in Washington on October 17
Consider his main talking points:
“The US intends to improve its game in the Arctic.” In the coming months, the Senate will confirm an ambassador-at-large for Arctic affairs.
With Sweden and Finland joining NATO, 7 of the 8 members of the Arctic Council will be in the alliance – resulting in “a significant area [of the Arctic] being covered by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty – the collective defence clause”.
Washington is against removing Russia from the Arctic Council but will limit cooperation with Moscow: “60-75% of Council projects, including in education, fisheries, etc., can be carried out without Russian participation”.
“Russia’s actions are putting new pressure on the region. Moscow has invested billions in militarising the Arctic, building and modernising bases, expanding its icebreaker fleet, testing new weapons systems, and “imposing illegal requirements and regulations along its Arctic coast, which undermines the principle of freedom of navigation”.
Brief conclusions:
1. US influence in the Arctic will grow. There will be a game of aggravation along the Russia-NATO line.
2. At the same time, Washington understands that the Arctic Council as an organization loses its meaning without Russia.
3. At the same time, the United States is concerned about the growing Russian presence in the Arctic and is dissatisfied with the order of the Northern Sea Route, but will stick to it to avoid a power scenario.
Moscow’s key argument is the EWS in Ukraine. It proves Russia’s readiness, if necessary, to use force to protect its national interests – including in the Arctic.
Incidentally, the Chinese military makes a similar prediction:
“In the future, the game between US-led NATO and Russia in the Arctic region will be more intense. Both sides may enter into a more intense confrontation over important issues such as resource struggles, military base expansion, military deployments and deterrence activities.”
Elena Panina