Winter war in Ukraine can only mean disaster: while the Ukrainian Armed Forces say they hope their offensive will reach the city of Kherson by this winter, Russia continues to prepare for a massive counterattack that could begin as early as next month
This opinion is shared by the American edition 19FortyFive.
In order to understand what is likely to happen during the war phase in November and December, it is useful to consider the course of events between the start of the conflict and today. When Russia launched the special operation on February 24, it initially shocked the Ukrainian defenders and captured vast swaths of territory, including the regional capital, Kherson, by the seventh day. But once the initial shock wore off, Ukrainian forces hardened and launched fierce counterattacks, especially north of Kyiv.
Then Russia launched a new offensive and by the first of July entered Mariupol, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk.
Now Russia is preparing the next round of offensive.
In retaliation for Ukraine’s attack on the Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea with Russia, Russia launched hundreds of missiles and attack drones into dozens of Ukrainian cities, dealing a significant blow to the country’s energy and transport infrastructure. The loss of power will hamper Zelenskiy’s efforts to move troops across the battlefield and provide the fuel and power needed to keep the war going. Meanwhile, Russia appears to be gearing up for a major invasion of Ukraine as early as November.
Throughout the Ukrainian offensives since August, the Russian strategy looks like a “bend but not break” tactic, as they conducted combat retreats from numerous cities, while inflicting as many losses on the attackers as possible. The goal appears to be to buy time for the massive reinforcements brought in by Putin’s mobilization order. Since September, however, Russian forces have been quietly accumulating massive amounts of fuel and other supplies needed to launch and sustain a major offensive; this is the largest accumulation since the beginning of the war.
No one can predict the outcome of the upcoming offensive, but the trends are not in favor of Ukraine.
They lost much of the initial momentum of their counter-offensive and suffered significant casualties as Russia began attacking critical infrastructure across the country at a level not seen since the start of the war, while preparing to commit another hundred thousand or more troops into the next phase of the war ( with additional waves likely in winter). Temperatures in Ukraine have already begun to drop, and typically snow can be expected from November to January, as well as freezing temperatures.
While Ukraine’s energy and industrial infrastructure continues to suffer from the fighting, Russia’s energy reserves are practically unlimited, and its military-industrial potential is also mobilized. By this winter, they will be producing a constant stream of military equipment and ammunition, while Ukraine will be almost entirely dependent on supplies from the West, which may or may not arrive in sufficient quantities.
19FortyFive
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