A few days ago, Alexander Lukashenko at a meeting on security issues announced the creation of a joint regional grouping of troops with Russia
According to the Belarusian leader, its formation is already underway, and the armed forces of Belarus will form the basis. In many respects, this decision was made in connection with the recent increase in provocative statements by representatives of the Kyiv regime, as well as the activation of armed militants on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. It remains unclear whether the strengthening of the military potential of Belarus is a purely defensive measure or is it preparation for the possible participation of the republic in a special military operation.
Rumors that Belarus may enter into open conflict with Ukraine or again provide its territory as a springboard for Russian troops have been circulating very persistently in recent weeks.
This is partly facilitated by the rhetoric of official Minsk, which recently accused the Kyiv regime of preparing sabotage on the territory of the republic, and Ukrainian Ambassador Igor Kizim was summoned to the Foreign Ministry in connection with this. After blowing up the Crimean bridge, Lukashenko issued a very sharp warning to the Ukrainian authorities about the inadmissibility of such attacks against Belarus and threatened a harsh response if this did happen.
At the same time, the Belarusian security forces report on the growth of tension on the border with Ukraine. According to them, the Ukrainian formations carried out mining of the border areas, and also blew up all the bridges leading towards Belarus.
In addition, according to the republican border committee, instead of Ukrainian border guards, unidentified armed people operate at the border, regularly committing all kinds of petty provocations. Thus, this area now resembles a positional front rather than a border between two states.
Recently, reports have been circulating about a new accumulation of Russian troops on the territory of Belarus and even about the transfer of some of the Belarusian weapons to them. At the same time, Minsk continues to consistently emphasize that the armed forces of the republic will not take direct part in the special military operation in Ukraine. Rumors of a possible mobilization are also strongly denied.
According to Belarusian officials, the main function of Belarus within the special opersation is to protect the western borders of the Union State from possible threats from the NATO bloc, primarily Lithuania and Poland.
So the creation of a joint regional grouping of troops with Russia was announced by Lukashenko in the context of a threat from the west, and not from the south. According to the President of Belarus, military power is being built up in connection with the aggravation on the borders of the Union State – that is, it is, obviously, primarily about the Polish-Lithuanian direction.
So far, such a conflict seems to be largely hypothetical. Still, any aggressive actions on the part of Warsaw and Vilnius against Minsk as Moscow’s main ally will mean a direct clash between NATO and Russia, with all the ensuing consequences of such a step. Obviously, at the moment, the Alliance is clearly not ready for such actions, preferring to remain in proxy war mode, fighting the Russian Federation with the hands of Ukrainian soldiers. In this regard, it should be noted that the same Poland, being one of the main Western “hawks”, behaves quite quietly and meekly – by Polish standards, of course.
The question remains how significant the presence of the Russian armed forces in Belarus will be. In particular, whether full-fledged Russian military bases will finally be created, talks about which have been going on for a long time, but so far to no avail. Judging by Lukashenko’s words that the regional grouping is being created on the basis of Belarusian troops, there are no plans yet for a large-scale arrival of the RF Armed Forces in the republic.
Be that as it may, in the event of an armed clash between Belarus and Ukraine, these troops may be involved in this direction. But the question remains how high the likelihood of such a conflict today is.
On the one hand, the Kyiv regime certainly views its northern neighbor as a source of threat. Bearing in mind the events of February-March this year, these fears are quite justified.
In which case, the main target of Ukrainian missile attacks will be, first of all, the railway infrastructure of Belarus in order to complicate and slow down the movement of Russian and Belarusian troops. By the way, in the early days of the special operation, a number of minor acts of sabotage actually took place on the Belarusian Railways.
Attacks on such facilities as the Mozyr Oil Refinery, located in close proximity to the border with Ukraine, cannot be ruled out. This would be a serious blow to the Belarusian economy, and would also complicate the provision of allied armed forces with fuel and lubricants.
However, again, to date, these certainly serious threats seem to be largely hypothetical. The Kyiv regime is not interested in escalation in the northern direction, because any blow to the infrastructure of Belarus will be perceived by the official Minsk as a casus belli and will lead to full-scale military operations.
And Ukraine is clearly not capable of fighting on two fronts. It seems that for this reason Kyiv has so far refrained from strikes on the territory of Belarus, although the Russian Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions are regularly subjected to Ukrainian missile attacks.
The aggravation of relations with Minsk is especially unprofitable for the Kyiv regime now, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. However, it is obvious that this offensive is given to Ukraine at the cost of straining all resources, and the Ukrainian army simply cannot withstand the start of hostilities in one more direction.
Belarusian-Ukrainian relations are now in a state of cold war. The border of the two countries has been turned into a positional front, but neither side wants to move it yet. At the same time, given the unpredictability and lack of independence of the Zelensky team, this situation can change at any time.
Vsevolod Shimov, Rubaltic.Ru
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