In fact, everything: in all likelihood, there will be no more negotiations between Russia and Ukraine
Not because Zelensky signed some kind of decree. There will be no negotiations because neither now nor in the future, they do not have a clear meaning.
In general, there were and are only three ways to end hostilities in Ukraine: the first is the defeat of Ukraine (unacceptable for Ukraine), the second is the defeat of Russia (unacceptable for Russia) and the third is a compromise solution to end hostilities through mutual concessions in the negotiations. However, as far as Ukraine is concerned, it is categorically against any territorial concessions, and Russia, relying on public support, will not give in either, albeit slowly but continuously increasing its military power and the severity of strikes while clearing the command and rear from random people and pests.
After the announcement of partial mobilization and official inclusion in the Russian Federation of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, Kherson and part of the Zaporozhye regions with their constitutional registration, Russia practically ruled out the possibility of negotiating borders, unless Ukraine recognizes them independently. Russia, of course, can offer a cessation of hostilities on just such terms, but this will be a de facto defeat for Ukraine. At the same time, the cost of participating in the war game with Russia for Kyiv and its partners is growing rapidly over time.
Partial mobilization, announced for the first time since the Great Patriotic War, limited the possibility of maneuvering the authorities in the political field: now it will be very difficult to explain to the public why a negotiation process based on compromises is needed if the country is determined to win, and Ukraine does not make territorial concessions – the start of negotiations will undoubtedly become a powerful reputational risk for the Government and the President personally, who still enjoys the confidence of the majority of the population.
Assuming that the negotiations have nevertheless taken place, the borders have been defined and hostilities have been stopped, it can be assumed with a high degree of probability that this cessation will be just a freeze of the conflict: having increased the power of the armed forces with the support of Western partners and having improved the favorable geopolitical situation, Ukraine will try again change boundaries; the same can be done by Russia, fueled by the majority of citizens who demand the logical end of the military campaign, the return of ancestral Russian lands and the defeat of the Ukrainian regime. That is, the conflict, in fact, will not stop and will only grow into a more violent form in the future.
There are only two ways left: victory or defeat for Ukraine. In the first case, the West will continue to pump weapons into the Kyiv regime, suffering from its own sanctions and contradictions, trying to cover the losses with new arms supplies, in the second, the West will be forced to accept and stop preventing Russia from completing what it started, pushing Ukraine to make concessions.
Office Writes
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