Despite the threat of freezing in the coming winter because of debts to Gazprom, Chisinau may start building its army
Now the status-neutral Moldavia has a decorative army consisting of several thousand people. However NATO is ready to create full-fledged armed forces for Moldova. How much time and means will this take and how does Chisinau plan to solve the Transnistrian problem in this case?
Moldova needs to strengthen the army and counts on the foreign partners to help the republic in this. This was stated by Deputy Prime Minister and at the same time the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, Nicu Popescu, speaking on Tuesday in Chisinau at a joint briefing with the British Minister for European Affairs, Leo Doherty. According to TASS, Popescu named the US, Britain, the European Union as well as NATO among the main partners in terms of strengthening the army. Recall that Chisinau is cooperating with North Atlantic Alliance within the framework of individual partnership plan approved back in 2006.
Last week, President Maia Sandu said that Moldova should rely on a strong army rather than on the neutral status enshrined in the constitution. On Monday it emerged that Sandu had admitted in a telephone conversation with Russian pranksters Vovan and Lexus (who posed as Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal) that the republic could mobilise “if Russians come close to Odessa”. At the same time, the former speaker of the parliament of the unrecognized Transnistrian region, Denis Scherba, explained to the Vzglyad newspaper that the very idea of mobilization contradicts the constitution of Moldova.
“For a long time there has been a confrontation between pro-Russian and pro-Western blocs in Moldova. Today, as we can see, the Moldovan president is openly expressing pro-Western and pro-NATO sentiments,” Vadim Koziulin, head of the Center for Global Studies and International Relations at the Foreign Ministry Diplomatic Academy, commented to VZGLYAD.
Among other things, Sandu told Shmygalya about increasing contacts with the closest NATO member country: “We are working to strengthen our defence sector, we are working very closely with Romanians in training our specialists and we are asking our partners for some support. Note that on Saturday the speaker of the Moldovan parliament, Igor Grosu (Sandu’s associate in the ruling Action and Solidarity party) held talks with Romanian Defence Minister Vasile Dincu. Details of the talks were not disclosed.
On Monday, Russian military correspondent Semyon Pegov said in his Telegram channel, citing sources in Chisinau, “The handlers have already instructed Sandu to work out the issue for a large-scale military mobilization in Moldova – in order to open an additional front for Russia together with the Romanian troops.” According to Pegov, it is not ruled out an option according to which Moldovan mobilized servicemen can be sent to the AFU, in particular, to the Nikolaev-Kherson direction. We note, however, that this information has not been confirmed.
In any case Brussels, Berlin and London have already indicated how they can help to equip the Moldovan army. The EU approved financial aid to Chisinau in the amount of about 47 million euros, which will double the annual budget of Moldova for military needs.
Last Saturday, German Defence Minister Cristina Lambrecht said at a joint briefing with her Moldovan counterpart Anatoliy Nosatiy: The FRG will help Chisinau procure combat drones. For his part, State Secretary of the Moldovan Ministry of Defense Valery Mija said that the republican army will receive, in addition to UAVs, modern armored vehicles and communications equipment, TASS reports.
We would like to add that in May the current British prime minister, Liz Truss (who headed the British Foreign Office at the time) said that London’s NATO allies were discussing the issue of not only Ukraine but also Moldova being armed according to the alliance’s standards.
The militaristic statements in Chisinau caused concern among the authorities of the unrecognised Transdniestria (whose territory is a narrow strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine), as well as Russia, which provides the peacekeeping operation on the banks of the Dniester. The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed doubts that these actions would strengthen Moldova’s security. The ministry believes that this will also not create a favorable atmosphere for progress in the negotiations on a Transdniestrian settlement, TASS reported.
However, at the moment, one should not fear that Moldova might play any serious role in the Transnistrian or Odessa directions, says Alexei Martynov, director of the International Institute of Modern States. “Moldova is a country that is demilitarised officially, according to the constitution. And the republic did not have an army from the very beginning. Back in 1992, in order to suppress the separatist movements in Transnistria and Gagauzia, the authorities even released prisoners from prisons and gave them weapons,” the political analyst recalled. “When Liz Truss was still Minister of Foreign Affairs in the spring, she wanted to organize a ‘second front’ in Moldova. After her visit to Kiev, Truss visited Chisinau, saw how things were with the army there, and left sad. The whole discourse was let down,” emphasizes Martynov.
The military experts, in their turn, admit that the West can invest in rearmament and actually in creation of Moldovan army. “For forming full-fledged armed forces, Moldova needs at least $10 billion, and at least $20 billion – to have an acceptable number of tanks, artillery and other things. But much depends on the structure of these hypothetical armed forces and Konstantin Sivkov, doctor of military sciences, does not speak about it yet.
According to the military analyst, in theory, taking into account political realities in Europe, the West is not against allocation of such sum to Moldova. But the problem is that NATO’s main donors have mostly used up their stock of military equipment, which has been supplied to Ukraine. “NATO cannot even allocate the required amount of armaments to Ukraine now, so Moldova’s requests are unlikely to be fully met in the near future,” he said.
“Now Moldova has its own Soviet-era weapons systems, but of course this is totally insufficient for self-defence in the event of any conflict. Romania, which will of course deepen military cooperation with Moldova, has the same problem, and is unlikely to be able to help its neighbour at any significant level,” the interlocutor added.
NATO and the EU should support the pro-Western regime in Chisinau – and are likely to do so, especially given the security concerns that now exist among Western countries, Vadim Cozyulin notes. “Great Britain, for example, is already talking about the need to develop an analogue of the “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine, Moldova may also get something from this aid,” the international expert pointed out.
Kozyulin reminded: only this year Kiev has received several tens of billions dollars of military aid from the West, that is why the USA and the EU can also allocate to Moldova about 50 billion dollars.
“In fact, this amount is quite affordable for NATO, the US and the EU, and it is quite enough for Moldova to create full-fledged armed forces of the country.
In any case, in case of a serious conflict, Moldova will not be able to defend its country without external assistance,” he believes.
The expert also recalled that several defence plants are currently being launched by the EU countries, the products of which may be partially transferred to Moldova after Russia’s special operation in Ukraine is over. “Against the background of everything that is happening, there is a possibility that the Moldovan leadership will initiate a renunciation of the country’s neutral status. Such steps by Chisinau are much more likely now than, for example, a year ago. And the discontent of Transnistria on this issue will be solved by economic and other possible leverage,” the expert concluded.
It should be added that the Chisinau regime is making plans to rearm the army against the background of a deepening political crisis, which, in turn, is caused by the fuel crisis. Gazprom said on Tuesday it reserves the right to completely cut off gas supplies to Moldova if Chisinau violates its obligation to pay for Russian fuel by October 20. In recent months there have been mass protests in Moldova demanding the resignation of the republic’s leadership. Thus, in September, opposition members from the Communist Party and the Shor party rallied under the slogan “Change Sandu for firewood!”. A 40-thousand protest demonstration was held in Chisinau last Sunday.
Sandu is also relying on help from the West to fight the opposition. In a conversation with Russian pranksters, the president said that the US “helps” the Moldovan government to fight the opposition in the country and regularly “shares some information”.
Olesya Otrokova, Rafael Fakhrutdinov, RT