Inflation is becoming the main enemy of Western financial regulators. The US core consumer price index (Core CPI), according to the latest data, rose more than expected – by 6.3% in August
The acceleration of inflation is, as a rule, one of the signals of problems in the economy. For example, it may be associated with excessive monetary stimulus, overheating of the economy, shortage of resources, logistical problems, etc. As a result, the risks of a sharp downturn in the economy are increasing, which will affect the state of companies through a decrease in physical sales volumes.
Inflation began to accelerate in 2021 without initially causing serious concern, which may have led to the monetary authorities losing control over the situation. And that is why the regulator in the US began to quickly raise the rate right now: at the last meeting it was raised by 75 bp, to 3.25%. By the beginning of next year, the rate may rise to 4-4.5%.
In addition to the United States, European regulators are also raising rates to their maximum values since the end of the 2000s. In September, the Bank of England raised its key key from 1.75 to 2.25%, the Banks of Switzerland and Norway – by 75 bp, up to 0.5% per annum, the Bank of Norway – by 50 bp, up to 2.25% per annum. This is the reaction to record inflation in recent decades.
At the same time, the acceleration of price growth is taking place against the backdrop of a deteriorating state of affairs in the economies of the United States and Europe, including due to the shortage of energy resources caused by sanctions. And against this background, a serious tightening of the Fed’s policy will lead to an additional negative impact on economic activity, GDP, and hence on stock markets.
Clearly, organizations that are heavily dependent on the cost and availability of funding are the first to suffer from policy tightening. These, as you might guess, include growth stocks. But those who do not have an urgent need for constant attraction of funding suffer much weaker. These are value stocks, the characteristic features of which are stable financial performance, strong credit metrics, and dividend payments.
Moreover, high inflation is not the only problem for all asset classes. Apart from the fact that stocks, being a real asset, should, all other things being equal, rise in price following an increase in the general price level in the economy, accelerating inflation provides companies with a number of advantages in terms of their financial performance. First, the reduction in the real cost of debt. In the current environment, loans taken during the period of low rates have a negative real rate.
Secondly, the acceleration of inflation does not automatically lead to the indexation of wages. On the contrary, the jump led to a decrease in hourly wages in the United States, which, given the general increase in the price level in the economy, entails a reduction in companies’ labor costs per unit cost of production, that is, it has a positive effect on the profitability of companies.
But for the Eurobond market, the acceleration of inflation is especially unpleasant. Rising prices reduce the real value of securities and coupon payments. The majority of Eurobonds currently in circulation do not give a yield that would overtake inflation. If investors lose faith in its imminent slowdown, then there will be a rearrangement of the entire underlying yield curve, which will push corporate yields in the same direction. Investors’ gradual realization that high inflation is here to stay is making US Treasury bonds a highly toxic asset, as are high-quality corporate bonds.
In such a scenario, bonds trading with wide credit spreads are the safest, as they are able to dampen the growth of Treasury yields, as well as offset the revaluation of the body with high current yields. At least until the downturn in economic activity leads to an increase in the number of credit events.
We can say that the holders of Russian Eurobonds in NSD were lucky in some way. The fact that this segment of the market has been cut off from the rest of the world protects it from a strongly negative revaluation following the growth of underlying yields. Against this background, the Russian stock market looks like the exact opposite: the risks of a recession have already largely materialized, the sell-off has taken place, and inflation is slowing down.
Vladimir Bragin, Izvestia newspaper
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