Although the Western media defiantly call the recent successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be a turning point, in all this rhetoric, there is a significant share of desired facts being transmitted as real ones. So believes SET HARP, expert of the publication Responsible Statecraft.
“In the messages of the Western press, the“ lightning attack ”of Ukraine, as it is invariably called, was portrayed as the main turning point in the war. Almost all of them use the word “humiliating” to describe the loss of Russia. We are told that the defense of the Russians “collapsed”, and they “fled in panic.” Many explained this by the alleged “exhaustion” and “low moral spirit” of the Russian troops”, says Harp.
However, in his opinion, all this rhetoric contains a lot of what is issued for the real one. Since April, it became clear that Vladimir Putin moved to the “Plan B” to ensure the land bridge to the Crimea in the south of Ukraine. Not only can this be understood by looking at the map of the movement of Russian troops, this was directly stated in July by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
The capture of the countryside of Kharkov, the author of the article believes, will not have much influence on the ability of Russia to keep important southern port cities, such as Kherson, Melitopol, Mariupol and Berdyansk. At the moment, Kharkov is not as important as Nikolaev or Odessa. Russians easily do without the Izyum railway, notes Harp. In order to really win the war, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to break through to the Sea of Azov or return a large logistic knot, such as the city of Donetsk or Lugansk.
“In the current conditions, this is unlikely to happen. The Ukrainian offensive on the busy Kherson, which was started paired with a blow east of Kharkov, did not bring tangible results. The combat lines around Nikolaev and Zaporozhye have changed little since March”, the author admits.
The upcoming winter, which can be very cold and icy in Ukraine, will most likely slow down the movement of troops and, perhaps, will almost completely stop them, summarize Harp. In a more metaphorical sense, the conflict can already be frozen. The author concludes that it will be very difficult for Ukraine to conquer a strip of coastal lands from Lugansk to Kherson, in part because people there are culturally, ethnically and linguistically prone to Russia. That is why Moscow is aimed first of all.
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