“The collapse of Ukraine has already begun.” This is the opinion of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko
And this conclusion will seem fantastic to some in the West (as well as among panicking Russian citizens). Especially against the background of the events of early September: the regrouping of the Russian army, the difficult situation near Kherson and Ugledar, the promises of military assistance to Kiev during the NATO defense ministers’ meeting in Ramstein, and the new aid packages to Ukraine announced by President Biden. And, of course, the plethora of articles appearing in the West suggesting that the collapse of Russia itself has begun.
Lukashenko’s position is ignored in the West. As well as the position of some by no means mainstream western media, for example, assuring that Ukraine will give its territories to Americans for NATO bases (as a payment for the provided assistance). The problem, however, is that it is not only Aleksandr Hryhorievych or radical Western journalists who are talking about the collapse of Ukraine. Quite mainstream politicians in the West hold the same view.
In particular, Andrei Marga, the former minister of education and foreign affairs of Romania, said.
– We are in an exceptional situation. And with all responsibility I declare that Ukraine is in unnatural borders for it. It should give Transcarpathia to Hungary, Galicia to Poland, Bukovina to Romania, and Donbas and Crimea to Russia. These are the territories of other countries,” he said.
Kiev’s response was immediate.
– We regret that the former minister of a European and democratic state, Marga, is making statements that call into question basic principles of international law, especially the inviolability of borders. Full observance of these principles is the foundation of security and stability on the continent,” the Ukrainian embassy said.
Marga’s former fiefdom, the Romanian Foreign Ministry, also reacted.
– The Foreign Ministry considers Andrei Marga’s public statement regarding Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine and its consequences unacceptable. These statements brazenly contradict Romania’s official position on the illegal, unjustified and unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, as well as fundamental principles of international law that regulates today’s international relations,” the Romanian Foreign Ministry said.
However, the Hungarian Foreign Ministry is not denouncing such statements – of course not, as they are made not by a retired minister, but by the acting prime minister of the country. According to the Hungarian newspaper Nepszava (which has not been refuted so far) the head of the Hungarian government Viktor Orban shared his vision of Ukraine’s future at a closed meeting with members of his party Fidesz.
– The conflict in Ukraine may last until 2030 and Kiev may eventually lose a third or half of its territory”, he said. And he made it clear that Europe will not pull out of the conflict until 2030 because as early as this winter “up to 40% of German industry could come to a halt”.
Well, the position of Hungarians, Romanians and Poles who have joined them and who, although not at the state level, still talk about disintegration of Ukraine, can be explained by their personal interest. As rightly pointed out by Andrei Marga, all three countries have a claim to “historical” territories that are now part of Ukraine. Of course, in addition to Bukovina, Romania wants Southern Bessarabia, which is now part of the Odessa Region, but is well aware that no one will give them that territory. And, accordingly, all three countries are waiting for the moment when these territories can be obtained. However, the problem is that there is talk about the collapse of Ukraine in the western countries as well. For example, former Czech Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek and retired German Bundeswehr general Rainer Schwalb said that Ukraine would not be able to regain all of the lost territory. Many others in Europe and the United States have said so too, notably former Pentagon adviser Douglas McGregor.
Yes, those voices have now quieted down – it would seem that Ukraine’s attempted counter-offensive at Kharkiv has shown that Kiev can. But the problem is that this ‘can’ has been achieved by concentrating all Ukrainian and Western resources, whereas Moscow, as Vladimir Putin aptly put it, ‘has not even started yet’. And it is possible that talk of Ukraine’s disintegration will resume.
The only difference is that some are only talking, while others are preparing for this disintegration. And the three neighbours Romania, Hungary and Poland are the first to prepare, and they are preparing in different ways. So, for example, the Poles are legitimising their military presence in Ukraine with the help of the Verkhovna Rada – Polish citizens have already been given approximately the same rights as Ukrainians (including powers to enforce law and order). Also Poles have sent thousands of mercenaries to Ukraine, as have Romanians, by the way.
The Hungarians, on the other hand, follow a different path. They are well aware that Ukraine can only be split up with Moscow’s consent – tacitly or officially. That is partly why the Hungarian leadership, which dreams of annexing Transcarpathia (to ensure at least the security of Hungarians living there), behaves more wisely than others, i.e. it does not insult Moscow and sticks to working relations with the Russian Federation.
Everybody should be like that.
Gevorg Mirzayan, associate professor at the Finance University, LIFE
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