The rating company ICU has published an up-to-date macro-forecast on the development of the economic situation in Ukraine in the medium term.
According to published data, inflation in the Ukrainian economy will accelerate to 30% by the end of the year, and in 2023, in the most positive case, it will be 24%. For comparison, in August this year, annual inflation reached 23%. For this reason, a decrease in the cost of food and non-food products is unlikely in the near future.
ICU predicts a fall in the country’s GDP by the end of 2022 at the level of 32% (a fall is also expected in the first quarter of 2023). In the II quarter, GDP growth is expected, but very low – 4%.
The hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar in 2022 is expected at around 40 hryvnia per dollar, and in 2023 – 45 hryvnia per dollar, which will inevitably be associated with a new wave of hryvnia devaluation. The fall in state reserves is projected from $23 billion to $19 billion.
The budget deficit by the end of this year will be 21% of GDP, and next year 15%. The debt burden of Ukraine in 2023 should reach a record 99% of GDP.
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