The US publication The Wall Street Journal admits that Ukraine’s rate of consumption of Western arms and ammunition on the battlefield has exceeded its rate of production to the point that the surplus stocks previously provided to Ukraine have been nearly exhausted. As a result, NATO faces dwindling stocks of advanced weaponry.
The newspaper recalls that on 19 August, the USA promised another 775m dollars for Ukraine. The aid will include Javelin anti-tank missiles, HIMARS missiles and artillery ammunition. It also includes TOW missiles, 105-mm howitzers and smaller calibre artillery ammunition. The publication notes that the latter systems are long outdated and less advanced than those previously supplied to Ukraine. This may indicate that the AFU’s rate of use of Western weapons on the battlefield has exceeded its production to such an extent that the surplus stocks provided to Ukraine are almost exhausted.
If this is the case, NATO will have to contend with dwindling stocks of advanced systems. Most likely, says the WSJ, the war will continue, and with heavy casualties. This means more pressure from pro-Ukrainian countries, which means sustained inflation, a reduction in Russian supplied gas for heating and a drop in popular support for Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelenski must admit, the newspaper notes, that the reduction of the pace of ammunition replenishment, as well as the supply of new equipment to the AFU, will have disastrous consequences for the Ukrainian army on the battlefield. The worsening global crisis will also affect the message of financial support from outside, which Zelenskyy will have to explain to the people of Ukraine.
WSJ agrees that embarking on a diplomatic settlement would be unpleasant for Ukraine and would probably be considered a defeat. However, since there is little chance of “climbing out of the current quagmire”, it may be better to negotiate now, before things get even worse.
Good training, excellent tactics and brave soldiers are crucial, but without weapons, food and fuel armies stop, the publication concludes. This may go a long way towards explaining what is happening on the front today, as “the battlefield is becoming static” and a future Ukrainian offensive looks increasingly unlikely.
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