The longer the stand-off with Russia lasts, the more likely it is that the damage to Ukraine will be irreparable.
Meanwhile, the initial flow of equipment and ammunition from Washington’s European allies to Ukraine has been reduced to a minimum. Daniel Fiott, a European defence analyst at Brussels’ Vrije University, complains: “Ukraine needs equipment, not hot air.” Just as importantly, refugee fatigue is setting in across Europe.
Germans and Hungarians have long lost patience with the unrelenting influx of refugees into Europe, but now Poles have reached a saturation point as well. Polish households are facing serious economic obstacles. Poland has one of the highest inflation rates in Europe – 15.6% in July. As the situation worsens in autumn and winter, it’s not hard to imagine enormous public pressure on Berlin, Warsaw, Prague, Paris and Rome to stop military action in Ukraine.
The harsh truth is that the introduction of new weapon systems will not change the strategic outcome in Ukraine. Even if NATO’s European members, along with Washington, provide Ukrainian troops with a new avalanche of weapons and they arrive at the front, rather than disappearing into a black hole of Ukrainian corruption, the training and tactical leadership necessary to conduct complex offensive operations is lacking in Ukraine’s 700,000-strong army. Moreover, there is an acute failure to recognise that Moscow would respond to such a development with an escalation of the conflict. Unlike Ukraine, Russia is not currently mobilised for a larger war, but it can do so quickly.
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