Europe’s window of opportunity is about to slam shut
In exactly one week the last turbine pumping gas from Russia to Europe will be shut down. The reason is routine maintenance work. News that has not only jacked up the spot prices of the blue fuel to Himalayan stock market peaks, but also exposed the entire flimsy and political construct that serves as the basis for the adoption of sanctions against Moscow.
Their main, but certainly unspecified, objective was “to make Russia look bad, but without us Europeans getting any credit for it”.
In the hastily drawn up papers everything looked so smoothly that the very thought of a possible ravine seemed to be heresy. And at the same time it was heresy which for uttering it in public could be punished. And to say that, dismissal was the mildest punishment that could await an apostate. And those who, according to the Brussels bureaucracy, persisted in their delusions could be dealt with more severely.
Therefore, all those who understood what all these restrictive packages would do to the continent’s economy, and therefore to European citizens and their habits, remained silent.
It is only now that the understanding voices have been heard. They are writing collective letters in which they urge their elected authorities to stop first of all. And having stopped, to calculate how the whole, as they say, “complex of measures against Russian aggression” threatens Europe itself.
The European machine, which not only produces sanctions, but also justifies them, is beginning to stall, and loudly. And now Macron himself calls Putin. And Putin has a long talk with the French president, again explaining the Russian position.
He explains for a long time, knowing (it would be worth mentioning) that for his interlocutor confidentiality is no more than a word. One can give it and one can take it back. This was demonstrated publicly not so long ago.
But nevertheless the Russian leader continues to talk to his French colleague. As he is referred to in the same French press as “the master of the Kremlin”, he is aware of the state of affairs. With economy, first of all.
Macron, to whom aggravation of the geopolitical crisis on the continent at first brought huge political dividends in the form of the second presidential term, believed half a year ago that he had managed to ride the wave. And that he would be able to ride it easily and carelessly through the next five years. It was a miscalculation.
Now, after the incantations in the spirit of “let’s do everything possible and even the impossible, so that the French do not feel the strain of the situation”, the concept has changed. It has changed radically.
Now, to be worthy of the current moment in history, “the French will have to pay the price for freedom, because the war is on our European doorstep”.
If we remember that the vast majority of the French have refused to pay “for freedom” for about 80 years, capitulating to the enemy and occupier in about a month and a half, and losing wars in their own former colonies, it is all the more unrealistic today to imagine that an unprecedented rise in the cost of living and unprecedented inflation will make society (even with incessant propaganda) change anything in consumption or domestic habits.
For the time being, however, there is no advice about using a wet cloth instead of a shower and reusing already used water, as it is recommended in Germany, but the cost of gas and electricity can lead to anything. As they say, let your thrifty imagination run wild just to spite Putin!
But for all the epicness of the picture and the vividness of the details of the not invented, but real, hand-implemented sunset of Europe, it is all the same lyricism.
It is not lyric about how Europe is going to get out of the place where it has driven itself without the slightest compulsion.
And while the speechwriters undoubtedly still have a couple of pathos rhetorical devices in their pockets, those who shape and formulate foreign policy no longer have such “tricks” in store.
For this reason, after the first conversation between Putin and Macron in a long time, the French side was quick to announce that the next meeting between the presidents will take place shortly (without specifying a date).
European diplomats, as usual unnamed, say: there is reason to believe that “support for Ukraine could change the parameters”. Not now, not immediately, but “over time”.
If we look at the calendar while reading the press and remember that autumn (the time of year in Europe according to the astronomical calendar, i.e. 22 September) is only a month away, the vagueness of the media’s wording becomes the necessary concreteness.
The situation leaves little room for manoeuvre, even for the authorities of those countries that have (or did have?) strong economies. They cannot afford to politically destroy their own industries, even if they call it “the price of freedom” a hundred and fifty times. They are also bound hand and foot by a variety of social obligations which are impossible not to fulfil. They are also not at all sure that the autumn – and more importantly winter – will be mild, with pleasant “European” temperatures.
General Frost (or General Frost) is virtually unpredictable in his actions, and how and how to keep hospitals, nurseries and schools warm, the current European and pan-European authorities do not know.
The decision-makers and decision-makers have already made a big nuisance of themselves not so long ago with their “green transition to windmills”. Much to the chagrin of all the environmental lobbyists, there has been virtually no wind for months on end across the continent.
It is therefore very difficult to imagine that the decisions being made in Paris, Berlin, Brussels or Rome are based on a rational understanding of the situation.
Rather, panicking, realising that time (in a broad sense, historical as well) is working against the tactics adopted and already threatening the strategy itself, the Europeans are trying to save face. But they are losing the initiative.
The window of opportunity is such that it can slam shut sooner than you expect.
Despite the aplomb stretched over its pompous faces, the continent is facing times of poverty, anxiety and unease.
Three white horses will carry Russia into the ringing white distance: December, January and February. But where Europe will be driven by General Frost is an open question.
Elena Karayeva, RIA
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