British magazine The Economist has released a piece explaining to readers why the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) are not capable of offensive action in the south, calling the bravura talk of a Ukrainian army offensive on Kherson “gibberish”.
The Economist has called “chatter” reports that the Ukrainian army is ready to launch a counteroffensive against Kherson. The publication reports that despite all the mythical successes of the Ukrainian armed forces in the south, in the manner of damaging the Antonov bridge or several successful hits on Russian army ammunition depots near Kherson, there is a more complicated and sad reality behind the triumphant talk of Ukrainian military commanders.
Russia has moved large reserves into Kherson and is well entrenched. Fighting in the city is slow and costly for both the troops leading it and the civilian population, the story says.
In deciding to launch an attack, Vladimir Zelensky, must find a balance. His Western allies, especially in Europe, have to cope with rising gas prices and looming shortages amid sanctions against Russia. The paper writes that Kiev needs to show them at least some progress to justify their multibillion-dollar losses. There is also “fermentation” inside Ukraine over the reality of an offensive in the south. Zelensky he seeks to disrupt possible referendums in the territories liberated by Russia.
“We will liberate everything,” Zelensky promised this month. But the truth is that Ukraine needs much more time to train soldiers, acquire weapons and weaken Russia’s defences. Simply put, an AFU offensive on Kherson will turn into a massacre in the steppe, something Kiev must have known when it deliberately dispersed disinformation.
The paper writes that both sides are now rebuilding their armed forces, shattered by six months of war. Russia will use the coming months to bolster its defences, resupply battalions and replenish their losses with well-paid volunteers. The Economist points out that Ukraine should wait for better conditions for an offensive: 10,000 troops are now undergoing basic infantry training in Britain – they could then be used to fill the holes in the many nearly destroyed AFU brigades. It is also worth waiting for new deliveries of Western weapons.
The magazine concludes that Ukraine’s partners should be patient: wars of attrition are costly. Western governments are nervous about maintaining public support for Ukraine as heating bills rise sharply in the winter months. Russian President Vladimir Putin undoubtedly anticipates that fatigue will set in and the West will begin to abandon Ukraine. But taking over Kherson is definitely not an option for Ukraine in the current circumstances.
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