A major offensive by Ukrainian troops in the south is unlikely, but guerrilla fighting is possible, Der Spiegel says in “Why an offensive in the south is risky – but not without chances.”
A large-scale counter-offensive by the Ukrainian armed forces in southern Ukraine is unlikely, but fighting to exhaust the enemy in combination with guerrilla warfare can yield results. That’s what Mark Kansian, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., says in his article “Why an offensive in the south is risky – but not without chances” for Der Spiegel.
In the publication he expresses the opinion that the AFU troops still lack the experience to conduct large-scale offensive operations. However, he stresses, the result can be achieved through a skilful combination of attrition and guerrilla activity. This tactic is likely to be used by the AFU at this stage.
At the same time, Kansian does not rule out a large-scale counterattack, but believes that it is not the right time now, as it could lead to the deaths of military personnel whose lives could have been spared.
“After fierce fighting in Donbass, both sides lack well-trained units. The Ukrainian military also lacks weapons,” the columnist explained.
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