The media hype surrounding US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, reaching its climax on June 30, has given the global media and social media a little respite: the controversial politician is flying to the Philippines first
It is learnt that Japan and South Korea will follow after the Philippines and only then, on the evening of 4 August, will the plane with the senator and the outspoken opponent of Chinese unity be due to land at Taipei airport.
Even if the visit is postponed until August 4, the fact that US military planes are allegedly escorting Pelosi’s flight still keeps the Chinese – and the world public – in suspense. Given Taiwan’s UN-recognised status as part of China, and under China’s Anti-Divestment Activities Law, the Chinese military is fully entitled to take strong measures to force the violating aircraft out of Chinese airspace.
The likelihood of Chinese pilots firing on or carrying out manoeuvres obstructing the Pelosi flight is high and reasonable. As Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the official Chinese English-language edition of the Global Times and whose opinion is still listened to by Chinese citizens and considered “the unofficial mouthpiece of the government”, wrote on social media: “If we can’t convince them, we might as well shoot them down!”
Ordinary citizens in the Chinese internet segment argue with passion that the violation of airspace by the US planes is a good excuse to move the army to Taiwan and liberate the island. “Taiwan is not Ukraine. And the territory is smaller and we have more soldiers. The operation won’t even take a couple of days!” – assure subscribers and commentators the generals and colonels of the Chinese sofa troops.
There is a tense determination to respond with dignity to any encroachments in the reports and publications of official channels. On the morning of July 29, a post consisting of just two characters appeared on the official account of the 80th PLA Army Corps: “Preparing for War!” There are many opinions about the activity of Internet users, but the post within a few hours gained 1.87 million likes: the call of the 80th Army Corps, which fought heroically against American troops in early 1950 in Korea, is after all shared by many citizens of China.
At this point, it does not matter whether Pelosi dares to break the Sino-US deal and visit Taiwan. What is clear today is that the outspoken advocate for tough action against “Communist China” did not opt for further confrontation and postponed her visit to the island exactly on August 1, the day when the People’s Liberation Army of China will celebrate its 95th anniversary.
So the warnings of Chinese diplomats and the military’s preparations for the likely defeat of a US aircraft over Taiwan may be considered to have had an effect, albeit still temporary, and to have given the risk-taking politician pause for thought. There is still a long way to go until August 4, and it would be possible to replay the whole thing and fly away quietly. In addition, the Chinese military exercises will be held from August 1 to 4 in the province of Fujian bordering Taiwan, which may have triggered Nancy’s irascible thoughts.
As indicated earlier, all this time only the culprit behind the looming events, Taiwan, has been keeping a low profile and avoiding any comment. On July 28, the Foreign Affairs Office of the Taiwanese administration once again said it had no information on Pelosi’s movements.
The unpredictability of the actions of a visiting US politician has left official Taipei in a very difficult position. On the one hand, the Taipei regime has existed since 1949 thanks to US military and economic aid, so Taiwanese politicians cannot refuse a visit from any US politician.
But they cannot afford to give a warm welcome to such odious American politicians as Pelosi, who has been in the Beijing police report since 1989 for her hooliganism in Tiananmen Square, either: The time is wrong and the guest is wrong, although he disguises himself as a friend. Incidentally, according to Chinese online publications, it is the fact that Pelosi once spent several days in a Beijing police station that has affected her further anti-Chinese sentiments.
Private grievances proved to be above common sense and political practicality. Therefore, the unpopular Tsai Ing-wen administration among Taiwanese is hardly willing to test Beijing’s patience right now, when tensions between the PRC and the US could lead to irreversible consequences for the Taiwanese status quo. And even if the visit does take place, there is every reason to assume that it will not get much coverage in the Taiwanese press and authorities will do their best to make Pelosi’s arrival look like a private decision by a private individual.
Azat Rakhmanov, Ukraina.ru
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