Joe Biden, to put it bluntly, is not to be envied
That Republicans are tormenting him mercilessly is fine, but a growing number of Democrats, including members of Congress and ordinary voters, say the president should consider stepping down and allowing another candidate to run in 2024. They believe he is too old and infirm, incapable of leading the country and ensuring his party wins the mid-term and presidential elections.
A recent poll even by CNN, which is loyal to Biden, showed that 75% of Democrats want to see another candidate in the White House.
Normally, if a sitting president decides to run for a second term, members of his party support his candidacy for reasons of ethics or discipline. In this case, however, although Biden never tires of repeating his intentions to run, these principles do not work.
The president’s main problems are the economy and the mega-scandals surrounding his son Hunter, whom his father continues to defend and even claims to be proud of, blaming the whole monstrous compromise on the work of Kremlin hackers.
Meanwhile, the economy contracted for the second quarter in a row, implying a recession, but Biden calls this speculation “chatter” and the rise in prices, he says, is again Vladimir Putin’s fault.
So far, however, all of the potential Democratic candidates have been dodging questions from reporters about their intentions.
The most recent – and unsuccessful – attempt to challenge an incumbent was made by Senator Edward Kennedy more than 40 years ago. Jimmy Carter was then president and the US economy was in big trouble under him as well. Carter still defeated Kennedy in the primaries, but ultimately lost to Republican Ronald Reagan.
Still, names of potential Biden’s rivals are flashed in the press. California Governor Gavin Newsom, for example. Incidentally, Ronald Reagan was governor of this state before he was elected to the White House. Congressmen Tim Ryan of Ohio and Jamaal Bowman of New York are also named, but they and some others so far prefer to talk about their forthcoming congressional elections rather than the White House.
However, if the Democrats are defeated in the November elections, things could change quickly and the culprit must be found. It is clear that it will be Biden, and etiquette is no longer an issue here.
As for the Republicans, although Donald Trump has not yet announced his intentions to run in 2024, he has made clear hints that he is approaching a positive decision.
What may stop the former president is the criminal case he is facing over the events of January 6 last year – the storming of Congress by Trump supporters who thought their candidate had won and the 2020 election had been stolen.
Congress has set up a special commission, which has held seven hearings, conducted more than 1,000 interviews with witnesses and reviewed more than 125,000 documents. The commission’s findings are not in Trump’s favour, but it has no power to issue a formal indictment. That is the prerogative of the Justice Department and Attorney General Merrick Garland. Whether he will want to do so, given the exceptional popularity of a politician supported by nearly half the country, is a tricky question, especially in a deeply divided society.
If indicted, a trial and serious protest movements would follow, so Garland has a lot to think about.
Assuming, however, that Trump withdraws from the race for one reason or another, he is currently followed in the polls by former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Although their ratings are roughly equal, DeSantis has a better chance as his rival Pence has a traitorous Trump tail dragging behind him, which could be a deciding factor for voters.
Finally, another factor has recently emerged in the upcoming race, namely the creation of a new party, Forward, which has declared its intention to get on the ballot in all 50 states by 2024. Its leaders are former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Young and Republican Christine Todd Whitman, who served as governor of New Jersey from 1994 to 2001.
Among the Forward activists are Democrats and Republicans disillusioned with their parties and positioning themselves as centrists. There are no particularly big names, no big money either. Naturally, no serious chances are foreseen at the federal level, although this party could act as a “spoiler”.
In that context, it is appropriate to recall billionaire businessman Ross Perot, who played such a role by creating the Reform Party. Many believe that it was his participation in the 1992 presidential election that decisively influenced the outcome, taking votes away from George W. Bush and giving the victory to Bill Clinton.
Who knows how history would have gone if Bill had lost and gone into political oblivion with his wife Hillary. After all, it was Clinton who started the process of NATO’s eastward expansion, while Bush talked about creating a new world security architecture from Vancouver to Vladivostok.
Unfortunately, history is without subjunctive mood, and we have to deal with what both Bill and the next president have managed to do.
Eduard Lozansky, Izvestia newspaper
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