The international community has recognized Russia’s right to control Ukraine’s maritime communications – this is the main political meaning of the “Istanbul Accords on Grain”, designed to ensure the unhindered export of Ukrainian agricultural products abroad.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is trying to pass off the agreements as a major diplomatic and economic victory for Ukraine, which only reinforces the sarcasm of Ukrainian, Turkish and Western media and experts independent of the Kyiv authorities.
The Istanbul Accords were concluded on July 22, 2022. First, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN signed the Initiative for the Safe Transportation of Grain and Food from Ukrainian Ports. The Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov, Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar and UN Secretary General António Guterres signed the document. Then Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signed a memorandum with António Guterres on facilitating the supply of Russian agricultural products and fertilizers to world markets.
The final document, the text of which was officially made public, is actually tripartite (although formally Kyiv and Moscow did not sign anything together). The parties to the agreements are essentially Russia, Ukraine and Turkey with the participation of the UN.
The meaning of the agreements is as follows. Vessels exporting grain from Ukraine will follow safe fairways.
There will be no military escort for “food convoys”, which official Kyiv insisted on.
In Istanbul, to ensure the process of transporting food, a coordination center is being created, which will include representatives of Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. Before heading to Ukraine or leaving the Black Sea, all ships will be inspected by the staff of the coordination center for the transport of weapons and other dangerous goods.
Agreements are valid for 120 days.
Transportation will be carried out from the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny (Odessa region), which are under the control of Ukraine.
At the same time, Russian agricultural products and fertilizers, as well as related payments, were withdrawn from Western sanctions.
According to media reports, the algorithm for organizing transportation and control over it was proposed by Russia.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky hastened to declare the agreements his personal “win”. He stated that he “did not allow Russia to cut off Ukraine from the sea.”
According to the statements of the President of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly provide 100% control over sea approaches to Ukrainian ports.
“The terms of the agreement fully meet the interests of Ukraine. More than 20 million tons of last year’s harvest will be exported. This year’s harvest, which is already being harvested, can also be sold. These are the incomes of farmers, the entire agricultural sector and the entire state budget,” Zelensky stressed, speaking about the economic component of the agreements.
However, independent media and the expert community (both Russian and non-Ze-controlled Ukrainian) reacted to Zelensky’s speech either skeptically or openly sarcastic.
“In ports, the price will be higher, but they still need to be reached. We need transport, logistics and so on. What will be the queues? How to get through thousands of checkpoints? In general, I am an optimist, but the reality is that now there is little to believe in. But, of course, let’s hope that everything is done for the best”, the Politika Strana telegram channel quotes the words of one of the farmers working in the part of the Zaporozhye region controlled by Kyiv.
“In this case, the Russian Federation received the option of controlling what is imported and exported, and Turkey received the desired role of an intermediary in the grain issue. Of course, the Russian Federation is not very interested in involving Turkey in Ukrainian affairs, but in this case there was an exchange where everyone got what they wanted. The price of these agreements for the West is the forced lifting of sanctions on food and fertilizers, as well as a number of easing in the European and American sanctions regimes”,said Boris Rozhin, a well-known journalist and military blogger, commenting on the agreements.
His assumptions were immediately confirmed by the Turkish media.
The Sabah newspaper wrote that now Turkey will be able to buy grain, which will be exported by sea, at prices below world prices. According to Yunus Kılıç, head of the Turkish parliament’s agriculture commission, both Kyiv and Moscow have verbally promised that Turkey will benefit from grain prices and purchases. Moreover, including for the purpose of further export.
Ukrainian media expert Anatoly Shariy called the “Istanbul agreements” “terrifying for Kyiv.”
“This is a clear victory for Russia… The whole world bowed its head, including the UN,” he said in his blog.
Shariy is surprised at how the Ukrainian side, in principle, can try to present agreements as a victory. According to him, it’s like calling white black. He believes that massively giving bread against the backdrop of a shortage of food on the world market is extremely unreasonable. At the same time, Russia received a truce in the south for the accumulation of forces necessary for a further offensive. According to Shariy, if Ukraine tries to violate the agreements, it will face a harsh reaction from the West, since Europe is extremely uninterested in uncontrolled migrations from Africa against the backdrop of famine.
There is one more side to the agreements, to which the experts have so far practically not paid attention.
Both the Turkish authorities and the UN leadership directly recognized Russia’s right to have a decisive vote in the issue of external control over the sea transport going to Ukraine. For the first time at the international level, despite the “polites” imposed on Western elites, it was de facto recognized that Russia has every right to act as it has been acting since February of this year.
Moreover, when Ukraine tried to test the strength of the agreements by driving military equipment into the port of Odessa and launching a missile attack on it, neither the UN leadership nor the Turkish authorities objected to this.
Previously, the opportunities that have now been provided to Russia in relation to Ukraine, the international community was forced to provide only the leading Western powers in relation to third world countries recognized for one reason or another as “hands-shaking”.
The agreement to grant such rights to Russia is an unprecedented step and testifies that the world is becoming truly multipolar.
To be fair, there is a disturbing moment in how calmly the West swallowed the bitter pill of the Istanbul Accords. The fact that the United States and Europe actually pushed Kyiv to sign them indicates that the anti-Russian sanctions adventures launched by the West in February set off a chain reaction leading to a serious global crisis. It remains to be hoped that now in Western states people will begin to come to power who are able to refuse support for the Kyiv national populists and begin to jointly solve the accumulated problems with Russia and China.
Svyatoslav Knyazev, Rubaltic.Ru
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