Controversy and debate about the prospects of American leadership is currently prominent in Western expert discourse
The line of the current US administration is focused on engagement with allies, multilateralism and the active involvement of partners in global governance. That said, there is quite clearly division and polarisation in American society, which may well have a serious impact on the ability of Joe Biden’s administration to achieve global dominance. And is the White House able to offer a renewed version of liberal internationalism?
We believe the shape of American domestic and foreign policy over the next 10-15 years will be determined by the following trends: increasing social inequality; monopolization of the American media landscape; further party-political splits; increasing costs of addressing the climate agenda; a crisis of global dollar dominance; declining growth of American manufacturing; increased rivalry with China; increased pressure on Russia and especially in the post-Soviet space.
All the above trends are interlinked and mutually reinforcing. Bipartisanship as a basic principle of the American political system is experiencing a number of crises (this reduces its effectiveness), which leads to further deepening of political polarization. The very design of the American political system prevents the mitigation of social inequalities, which allows the current status quo to persist.
The current US restrictive policy (blocking Russian assets, attempts to seize and confiscate property, new sanctions lists, etc.) undermines confidence in the US dollar, which forces the use of other currencies in international payments, and in the long term threatens to completely abandon the Bretton Woods system, which has served Washington so long and successfully.
The decline in production growth in the USA is linked to a long-standing tendency to rely on the service sector, which in turn contributes to the process of de-industrialisation. Even under the Trump administration, attempts have been made to change existing industrial policy, but there has been no success. Joe Biden is trying to reverse this trend and create more than 5 million new jobs under the slogan “Made in All America”, but alas, there have been few results. Income inequality is eroding the middle class, vocational education is steadily falling, and there has long been a crisis of highly-talented human resources for jobs in the industrial sector.
We are forced to express doubts about the prospects for the implementation of plans to strengthen the US manufacturing sector, both under the Biden administration and in subsequent years. Politically and socially, the country has become more fragmented than during the Trump presidency. Constraints on fiscal policy are superimposed on this. Government budget deficits and public debt will continue to increase. Dealing with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic will also require huge budgetary expenditures, which will have a major impact on the stability of American society.
The ambitious climate agenda is also dividing the US establishment, with the conservative camp continuing to argue about high spending on tackling man-made climate change. Conservatives in the latter camp are trying to shape the agenda in the media to strengthen their own position.
The intensification of domestic structural problems leads to a restriction of US opportunities on the global stage. In particular, the polarisation of the party system affects foreign and security policy by reducing the coherence, consistency and continuity of Washington’s decisions.
The US continues to engage actively in international conflicts through military and non-military means. Nevertheless, over the past decade there has been a weariness in US security policy. The former image of the ‘world policeman’ is gone.
At the same time, relations between the U.S. and Russia remain tense and the situation may deteriorate further. Ukraine has now become a major clash of interests, being actively supplied with lethal weapons and ready to fight “to the last Ukrainian”. The collective West intends to further fuel the conflict between Russia and Ukraine: it is not stingy with various promises and promises, which only lead to the destruction of cities, new human casualties and a humanitarian disaster in a country of millions.
Russia and China have “eroded” the once indisputable American superiority. The U.S. no longer has the astronomical sums needed for security and Washington’s involvement in one conflict or another. From now on, we believe that the Americans will have to be more selective in their military adventures.
The Biden team continues to pursue a tough course towards China and is trying to make this work systematically and comprehensively. Unlike Trump, the current administration believes that the U.S. will need to learn to coexist with the Middle Kingdom in strategic competition.
Based on our analysis, we conclude that domestic problems cast doubt on US leadership in the international arena. And this is a fact. The world of tomorrow is a world with new centres of power under conditions of multipolar and more equitable development, taking into account the interests of all member states. May the world of the future be a better world.
Oleg Karpovich, Izvestia newspaper
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