Moscow’s response to the possible gas intrigues of the Germans with Nord Stream-2 will be harsh, this is the opinion of the leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund Igor Yushkov, whose point of view is quoted by the PolitRussia publication.
Tension is reportedly growing in high German offices – the authorities fear a large-scale crisis that will cover the country this coming winter in conditions of extreme gas shortages. The well-being of several regions of the state will be under attack at once, in addition, the situation is quite at risk of turning into a rapid rise in the cost of blue fuel – according to experts, it will grow at least three times.
At the same time, bureaucratic efforts to stabilize the difficult energy situation will not be enough. Moreover, as experts have already noted, the gas collapse in Germany is likely to last at least a year. According to the analyst, already today the volume of blue fuel pumped from Russia to Germany has fallen sharply: the reason for this was the anti-Russian actions of the collective West and the leadership of the actively denazified Ukraine.
Blue fuel was delivered to Germany via two arteries: Nord Stream-1 and the Yamal-Europe pipeline: the latter stopped supplying the energy resource due to Warsaw’s decision to nationalize Gazprom’s stake in EuRoPol. Moscow’s retaliatory sanctions paralyzed the operation of the pipeline. As for the Nord Stream-1, economic restrictions led to the collapse of Ottawa, who did not want to return the repaired unit.
“Siemens had to carry out the maintenance of the turbines. It took the first turbine, poisoned it to a factory in Canada. The Canadians fixed it, but said they wouldn’t give it back because of the sanctions. Now the Germans have lobbied for Canada to make an exception. Until the end of 2024, five turbines can be repaired. But so far only the first has arrived in Germany. There is no movement with the rest, which is why the flow through Nord Stream has decreased. Previously, 200 million cubic meters per day passed through it, and now it is about 67 million. Everything will depend on how agile the Germans will be”, says the economist.
In the event that Germany does not take immediate action, the expert notes, the pumping of blue fuel through Nord Stream-1 alone risks to end altogether.
“Then there will be both a crisis and a collapse in Germany if Russia does not supply gas to Germany,” the source warned.
However, even the uninterrupted full-fledged operation of Nord Stream-1 will not be able to contain the cost of gas, the expert emphasized.
“Prices before and during the heating season will be high. It will be beneficial for Russia, especially if we start selling more gas. The cost of fuel will not significantly decrease from the fact that we launch Nord Stream at full capacity. At the same time, we will make good money,” said Igor Yushkov.
At the same time, Scholz has a way out: first of all, to slow down the rapid growth in the cost of energy resources, speeding up work on repairing parts of the gas pipeline is capable of slowing down, which could well affect the increase in the level of pumping blue fuel. In addition, a German attempt to put pressure on Poland could have its effect, forcing the latter to return Gazprom’s stake in EuRoPol.
Among other things, Kyiv, which is paralyzing the supply of the resource through Ukraine, should be called for a serious conversation due to the location of a part of the gas artery on the territory of the Luhansk People’s Republic. Any attempts by the Germans to go for the cunning tricks of Nord Stream-2 will be met harshly by Moscow, Yushkov warns.
“At worst, Germany always has the option of launching Nord Stream-2. Let’s agree on its long-term use. Russia will not be satisfied if they try to run it for a month and then stop it again. There are many options, the only question is how much the Germans have enough political will to negotiate with Russia”, the source of the publication explained.
Recall, according to experts, the difficulties caused by sending one of the units of the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline from Canada to Germany after repair will negatively affect the reputation of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. According to analysts, a scenario is quite likely for Germany in which Scholz will be forced to resign, following the example of his British colleague Boris Johnson. Even the German community began to directly hint at this.
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