On July 19, Vladimir Putin will visit Tehran, where he will hold several crucial meetings, not only for Russia but also for the whole world. The Russian president will meet with Ibrahim Raisi and Recep Erdogan. A meeting with Ayatollah Khamenei should not be ruled out.
The complete break with the West and the nullification of mutual obligations finally opens up great opportunities for Russia to shape its own international agenda. We have already written that the collapse of the globalist world order is inevitable. The only question is when it will happen. If we go the natural way, the process may take decades.
So it’s necessary to secure a place for ourselves in the new world order now. And Putin is speeding up the process of breaking up the unipolar world by forming new centres of power.
Iran is for Russia the key to two macro-regions of Eurasia at once. To the Middle East and to South Asia. For example, without Iran (as part of the North-South ITC route) it is impossible to effectively develop trade with India and other South Asian countries. And without diversification of trade flows (both exports and imports) there are risks of becoming totally dependent on China. However, India’s economic growth rate has surpassed that of China. Yes, it is still far ahead of China in terms of GDP, but India could well come out on top by mid-century. This means that the foundations of cooperation need to be laid now.
Without Iran, it would be much harder for Russia to achieve phenomenal success in Syria. Moscow’s and Tehran’s interests in that country are aligned. Russia’s entrenchment in Syria has significantly improved its negotiating position with all the countries in the region. But especially highlight Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Now the goals of Russia and Iran are 100% the same. However, the successful realization of all this enormous potential may be hindered by the mutual mistrust that has always haunted relations between Moscow and Tehran. In the “zero years,” Russia behaved, to put it mildly, indecently in favour of the West, moderately supporting Western policy towards Iran, including by not particularly objecting to the imposition of restrictions. Yes, Moscow itself has not imposed any restrictions on Iran, but it has verbally hinted that the West’s actions are generally legitimate.
As for Iran, the reformist government (which, however, has already left) has “screwed” Russia several times. After 2014, for example, there were a number of mutually beneficial cooperation programmes between the two countries. In particular, the “oil for goods” programme, under which Russia was to supply Iran with its high-tech goods, and in barter accept oil. However, as soon as restrictions were lifted against Iran’s oil sector in 2017, Tehran unilaterally blocked the programme. It was thought that all the problems were over. But just two years later, Iran’s oil sector is again under restrictions.
All in all, despite the rather successful cooperation in Syria, the background to Russian-Iranian relations is like this. Widespread cooperation, despite its obvious and mutual benefits, has not been built up over the decades. This is best illustrated by figures on trade turnover, which by the end of 2021 was a ridiculous $4 billion, while with Turkey it was $33 billion.
However, the situation has now changed dramatically. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Ibrahim Raisi are personally engaged in taking cooperation between Russia and Iran to a new level. The seriousness of the intentions is obvious.
Raisi visited Moscow in January. And at that time it was announced that Russia and Iran would sign a strategic cooperation agreement for 25 years. Now the agreement is ready. Most likely, Putin and Raisi will sign it the other day in Tehran.
Russia and Iran form a Eurasian meridian that will include India in the second phase. This will be a powerful geopolitical line dividing Eurasia into two parts, stretching from the Arctic Ocean to the Indian Ocean.
Konstantin Dvinsky
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