Vilnius once again made sure that they have no allies in the European Union. Therefore, we stoically accepted the recommendations of the European Commission (EC) on Kaliningrad transit. On July 13, the EC allowed Russia, under certain conditions, to resume the transportation of sanctioned goods by rail to the Kaliningrad region.
Lawyer Dainius Žalimas called “explanations on the transit of goods to the western part of the Russian Federation a loss for Lithuania.” His conclusion: the period when “we were interesting to Europe with our experience and when our far-sightedness in matters of relations with Russia was supposedly recognized” is coming to an end. Nothing to do about it. The world is really changing, you have to get used to it.
The president, prime minister, leaders of parliament and Seimas committees responded positively to Brussels’ decision: Lithuania stops useless discussions and starts working according to new rules. In particular, President Gitanas Nauseda predicted “an end to provocative disinformation attacks by the Kremlin.” The head of the Cabinet of Ministers, Ingrida Simonyte, said: the government will “provide Russian traffic.” In short, official Vilnius has demonstrated to the world its satisfaction with the compromise proposed by the European Commissioners.
If we go beyond Lithuania, then Chancellor Olaf Scholz and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who until July 13 advocated the toughest anti-Russian sanctions, are happy with the end of the potentially explosive conflict. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki successfully speculated, recalling that he had always been a supporter of a peaceful settlement of relations between the European Union and Russia.
The White House, which has always said that transit restrictions are part of anti-Russian sanctions, declined to comment. However, Vilnius, on its own initiative, referring to unnamed American diplomats, issued a statement that Washington reacted favorably to the “de-escalation of the situation.”
However, the chain of subsequent events calls this into question. Moreover, at a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid in Jerusalem, Biden said:
“The United States will not stop actively participating in the affairs of the countries of the Middle East in order to prevent Russia, China or Iran from dominating the region. Like, it becomes clear “how closely America’s interests are intertwined with success in the Middle East.”
Kaliningrad, Moscow and Vilnius are far from the Middle East, but in the context of “preventing Russian dominance” in the Baltics, this triangle also matters to America. Its interests are closely intertwined with plans for the demilitarization of “the tip of the Russian spear attached to the European underbelly.” Trying to resist the dictatorship of the United States, the European Commission broke off the “multi-move” of the United States to separate its western exclave from Russia. Therefore, overseas partners have made little Lithuania a point of great continental tension. For example, while the conflict lasted, Germany was on pins and needles. Its government was outraged, Der Spiegel wrote:
“The German authorities fear that the conflict with Russia may be aggravated by a dispute over transit, and Moscow will use force to create a land corridor.”
The Germans, it seems, understood better than other Europeans that the tension would not come to naught by itself. If Moscow has promised to roughly punish Lithuania for the blockade of the exclave, it will. There are enough examples of this in Ukraine.
In Lithuania, there is an abundance of fans of the unipolar world and the unconditional dominance of America. Former President Dalia Grybauskaite instantly called the retirade of power from “the sanctions battlefield a ballet on trembling legs”, and Lithuanian statesmen “rushing about and unable to adequately assess what is happening”: “Lithuania and Lithuanians have no right to retreat. It is impossible even in thought to allow the totalitarian Kremlin to realize its superiority over a democratic state.”
The main ideas of the rapidly aging “amber lady” were picked up by MEP Petras Auštrevičius – “the European Commission went beyond its competence with explanations on transit”: “Political courage is needed to strengthen sanctions, not to weaken them. The European Union has not been able to resist information terrorism by Russia. Moscow has framed accusations of a boycott against the entire EU, citing particular deteriorating living conditions in the region, and has begun to develop political lobbying that has paid off.”
A group of “indignant” formed in the Lithuanian Seimas, calling on state leaders to help organize a meeting of international lawyers with European commissioners. Professor Raimundas Lopata of the Liberal parliamentary faction does not consider the position of the EC to be binding. He proposed to tightly block the Kaliningrad transit, if necessary, to dismantle the railway tracks. Diplomat Albinas Januska publicly spoke out against granting Russia any exceptions and asked the Foreign Minister to explaine everything. Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis did not keep us waiting: Russia lost the game.
After the decision of the EC, the owner of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry slumped under a flurry of criticism. “Hawks” accused him of inability to negotiate with the inhabitants of the Brussels offices. However, a phone call from across the ocean cheered up Landsbergis.
In fact, the head of the Foreign Ministry announced a new crusade against Moscow:
“The European Commission has introduced a quota regime. We will limit Russian cargo in a way that has never happened before. For Moscow, the development of events will be unacceptable. She will stop the transit herself. In the interests of transatlantic unity, we will continue to contain Russia wherever possible.”
The key here is “in the interests of transatlantic unity.” Contrary to and to the detriment of national interests. In any matter, Landsbergis is not guided by the clear rules of the game for everyone. The essence of diplomatic art is closed to such people.
A huge trouble for Lithuania is that there are a lot of Landsbergis. They are the direct heirs of the Minister of Foreign Affairs (1938-1939) Nicolae Petrescu-Comnena under the Romanian King (1930-1940) Charles II. In Europe, Komnenos was considered un parfait imbėcile, “a boundless idiot”. Such are suitable only for declaring war, which is beneficial to Washington.
Across the Atlantic, everyone stocked up on popcorn in anticipation of a new round of tension between Vilnius and Moscow.
Arturas Paulauskas, FSK
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