“My heart weeps when they raised toasts in Moscow last night, Medvedev rejoiced because Putin was served Draghi’s head on a silver platter.” In those words the Italian foreign minister described how he sees Russia’s reaction to the problems in the Italian government. What does Russia really have to do with it – and why are the problems for EU leaders just beginning?
The national unity government in Italy is in deep crisis. One member of the coalition, the Five Star Party led by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, is extremely unhappy with the government’s economic performance and with Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s intention to increase aid to the Kiev regime.
In addition, Giuseppe Conte accuses Mario Draghi of plotting to remove Conte as head of the Five Stars (for which he allegedly called Star founder Beppe Grillo personally) and does not intend to tolerate “such interference (by the prime minister) in the internal affairs of the party that supports him.” The potential exit of the Five Stars from the governing coalition would not deprive it of a majority – but the problem is that other politicians could follow the star politicians. Northerners, for example. Another member of the ruling coalition, the League (formerly the League of the North), opposes the authorities’ plans to automatically give citizenship to a million immigrant children.
Stars want a face
“The Stars and the League are outraged not just because they don’t like something. The fact is that the hodgepodge of different parties with different views assembled to form a government has short-term benefits for the participants (they become part of the government), but is fraught with long-term rating consequences for them. The parties essentially become diluted, losing face and – through forced compromises with abandonment of agenda items – the nuclear electorate.
Which, in fact, is what happened to the Stars as well as the Northern Italian League. “Both the far-right League and the Five Stars movement performed poorly in the local elections held last week. Therefore – ahead of the 2023 parliamentary elections – they are trying to regain their political identity,” writes the European publication Politico.
Part of the Five Star identity is populist rhetoric, so Giuseppe Conte has rolled out a series of economic demands to the prime minister, including raising the minimum wage, fighting inflation more aggressively, and refusing to cut some social benefits. Giuseppe Conte said his party was ready to stay in the ruling coalition and take responsibility, but he was not prepared to “write the government a blank cheque”.
On 14 July a vote of no confidence in the incumbent government took place in the Senate. Although it failed (172 senators voted against and only 39 in favour), Mario Draghi officially resigned – simply because 70-plus Five Star senators abstained. “The majority … that has supported this government since its inception no longer exists,” Mario Draghi said. According to the prime minister, a government with ultimatums “ceases to work and loses its raison d’être”.
Burned by Russophobia
Italian President Sergio Mattarella, however, did not agree with the prime minister’s decision. He did not accept Mario Draghi’s resignation. Apparently, now, when Italy is waiting for the second tranche of the EU budget for recovery from the pandemic and before the next year’s budget is passed in the autumn, it is not the right time to dissolve the government. The president has therefore demanded that the prime minister go to parliament and try to resolve the issue with MPs. “We now have five days to work so that parliament confirms its confidence in the Draghi government and Italy gets out of this tangled dramatic situation as quickly as possible,” said Enrico Letta, another former prime minister and leader of Italy’s Democratic Party.
It is not impossible that “Super Mario,” as Draghi is known for saving the single European currency when he was head of the EU Central Bank, will save Italy’s government. Indeed, to retain the coalition government (by making some concessions to Conte and apologising to him for trying to stage a coup in the Five Stars) and continue to rule the country.
However, the trend is clear – there is a premiership in Europe. Over the past few months at least a few heads of government have either resigned (Kiril Petkov in Bulgaria, Boris Johnson in the UK, Kaja Kallas in Estonia) or are on the verge of resigning.
Curiously, none of them belong to the small and supposedly most vulnerable cohort of European leaders (including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and – very conventionally, but still – Turkish President Recep Erdogan) who are not part of the Western sanctions coven against Russia. Rather, on the contrary – the same Johnson, Kallas and Petkov have been ardent advocates of the sanctions.
In fact, it is precisely because of these sanctions and this Russophobia that they got burned. Yes, in each case the resignation had its reasons. Johnson was sort of burned out over a scandal with his associate who drunkenly harassed other men. Petkov left because of economic and energy problems, and the Estonian ruling coalition split over the refusal of several parties to pass a law to abolish schools and kindergartens that teach in Russian. In essence, however, all governments have fallen apart precisely because the elites have adopted extremely hostile policies towards Russia.
A policy that led to the severing of economic ties with Moscow – that is, an economic crisis. Energy sanctions against Russia – i.e. a sharp rise in energy prices on the European market.
A sharp rise in Russophobia in their own countries, i.e., an aggravation of internal conflicts in those of them where Russians-thinkers form a significant part of the population. And finally, a principled unwillingness to deal with internal problems and a desire to put them down to “Putin’s intrigues”, “Putin’s taxes” and the like. In fact, Italian Senator Antonio Saccone has already said that Conte and his comrades are “doing a favour” to Vladimir Putin by breaking up the government.
“It makes my heart weep when toasts were raised in Moscow last night, with Medvedev cheering because Putin was served Draghi’s head on a silver platter. “Autocracies raise toasts and democracies weaken,” said Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, who, along with a number of MPs, left the Five Stars because he is a hardliner against Russia.
Time to choose
And this raises two questions. Firstly, will the European elites draw any conclusions from the beginning of the “premierfall”? Do they realise that it is time to end the sanctions coven, wind down the war on Europe’s eastern borders and engage in the restoration of economic ties with Russia, and indeed the economic recovery of Europe in general?
“If you’re in the business of making money instead of producing goods, it’s bound to end very badly. Now high energy prices have been added to that, and there will probably never be low prices again,” Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, explains to VZGLYAD. – Of course, prices are high to one degree or another for everyone, but the European countries, after fighting covid, no longer have reserves to deal with the energy issue – debts and budget deficits have simply reached unacceptable levels”.
The answer to this question would be unequivocally positive – after all, all prime ministers want to remain prime ministers if sovereign European politicians are involved. But the problem is that there are few such sovereign politicians in Europe – Orban, Erdogan and that’s it. The rest prefer to follow the course indicated by the States, contrary to the interests of their own population. And that raises the second question – who is next? “Mario Draghi will leave his post anyway. There is a view that the decree on the dissolution of the chambers will be signed on July 20,” believes Dimitri Ofitserov-Belski. But who will step down after Draghi?
The main candidate for this role is Olaf Scholz, chancellor of the most powerful EU country, Germany.
After all, the country is governed by the same “hodgepodge” as in Austria – a “traffic light coalition” consisting of the Social Democrats, as well as the radical Free Democrats and the Greens. Parties that cannot find common ground on many issues, including the topic of containing Russia.
Yes, Scholz’s resignation – if it happens – will be different from those of Johnson, Petkov, Kallas and (potentially) Draghi. After all, Scholz – unlike his colleagues – is not a supporter of Russophobe politics. He is in every way preventing the sale of German arms to Ukraine, and generally sabotaging (within his power, of course) the anti-Russian policy of the West.
“Scholz is under pressure, as is his party as a whole. Part of this pressure is sponsored and organised by the US. The future of the coalition and of Scholz’s chancellorship will depend on the coalition allies. Personally, I’m not sure that an alliance with the Greens can be counted on,” says Dimitry Ofitserov-Belsky. However, Scholz is to blame here too – and that is in indecision. In that he – the leader of the European Union – is trying to weave between the jets instead of publicly defending his position.
The collapse of the governing coalition in Germany – with all due respect to the fate of Mario Draghi – would be a crucial signal to European elites that it is time to make a choice. Either become sovereign leaders in their own countries, abandon the “Putin’s taxes” demagoguery and get down to business or step aside. Thereby making room for those who are ready to solve real, not imaginary, problems.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the Finance University, Vzglyad
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