Politicians are not embarrassed by the fact that the reform will cost a huge sum, and this against the background of double-digit inflation. Almost every resident is forced to economize because of high prices. Autumn is around the corner, and the government is advising to save money for heating, because the tariffs will be unaffordable.
Women joining the ranks
Universal military service will be introduced gradually, over a five-year period. Starting next year, it will begin conscripting volunteers. They will be able to choose between simple military service, training in the guard for five years (20 days a year), a course of military squadron leaders, or an alternative service in the institutions of the Ministry of the Interior or Health. It will not be until 2027 that compulsory conscription for all will begin. If there were too few volunteers, however, the new regime could be implemented as early as in 2024, Defence Minister Artis Pabriks admitted.
President Egils Levits is in general agreement with the idea: “We can discuss whether it should be mandatory only for men or for women as well. In any case, I am in favour of the principle of equality. Women should also be prepared to defend their country. In addition, citizens living outside the country should be involved in the service, the president said. To tell the truth, he did not specify how he was going to do it – authorities will not be able to put a runaway soldier who went to Ireland, for instance, into the rifle.
The Latvian army turned professional in 2007. Most NATO countries do not have conscription, but Latvia’s neighbours have taken their time with the reforms: Estonia has kept the draft, while Lithuania has returned to the old practice after many experiments. At the same time, Riga has long been discussing how to increase the number of military personnel.
Last winter, Pabriks gave the following estimations: every year €100-130 mln was needed for 3 thousand conscripts and one-time investments in the infrastructure were about €600 mln. By the summer, the figures had grown considerably. At the same time, the military budget, as required by the alliance, is more than 2 percent of GDP, and with such expenditures it will have to be doubled.
There are no fresh opinion polls on the subject yet. However, every year the army recruits fewer and fewer potential soldiers, which speaks eloquently about the priorities of young people. The commander of the National Armed Forces Leonid Kalninsh blames the shortfall on the demographic dip 20 years ago and also on comparatively low salaries “a soldier in his first year receives about €1000-1050 per month which is made up of a salary, food and accommodation allowance”.
Young people will flee to Europe
The demographic situation in Latvia is very bad indeed. “Very bad, but not completely catastrophic,” as the country’s leading demographer, Ilmars Mejs, puts it. Officially there are almost 2 million people living there. About 440,000 (about 22% of the population) receive an old-age pension, and the average payment is just over €430. The financial burden falls on the shoulders of workers – they are about 900 thousand (about 45% of the population). Young people prefer to go to European countries to earn money.
At the moment of proclamation of independence, there were 2.7 million people in Latvia. Since 1995, when the country was left by Russian militaries and members of their families, the population, only on official data, reduced by 600 thousand. Baby-boom fell on years of perestroika – and since then less and less children were born. In 2021 the death rate exceeded the birth rate twice. According to pessimistic estimates, in two or three generations less than a million people will remain in Latvia.
– Mass emigration started in 1991 and accelerated in 2004 after accession to the European Union; the crisis of 2008 made a strong splash. The exodus was so great that one of the main policies was re-emigration – the return of those who left. First of all, young people. And now with the general conscription they are going to undo this work,” says Andrei Starikov, editor-in-chief of the news portal Baltnews.
The Latvian state has switched to a militaristic model, he believes, and migration and demographic issues have taken a back seat. The NATO summit in Madrid was an incentive for the Baltics to spend even more on military needs.
– They need to show commitment to the militaristic model, which means increasing their own forces and driving young men into NATO’s canvas boots. It is not a model of development, it is a model of living on military handouts. It is short-lived and carries the potential risk of military provocation – if there is a gun on the wall, of course, it will go off. And young people will continue to leave”, Starikov is convinced.
Without Russian energy carriers
Meanwhile, inflation in Latvia has skyrocketed – consumer prices have risen by 19% over the year. Residents were hoping that June would be a quiet period after the sharp rise in electricity rates in May, but in that month too everything went up in price. And in July, gas tariffs were raised. Depending on consumption volumes, prices went up by 65-90%, according to Latvian gas company Latvijas Gaze. In some regions, such as the Adazi region, the price for the blue fuel will have to pay four times more. Entrepreneurs and sellers are shifting production costs to consumers.
Riga used to import 90% of the gas it needs from Russia, but stopped receiving it at the beginning of April because it did not agree to Moscow’s demands to use the new billing format for supplies. It does not intend to reconsider its decision, said Prime Minister Krisjanis Karinsh. Currently, gas is supplied to Latvia through the Klaipeda LNG terminal and the Incukalns underground gas storage facility.
– Most Latvians have changed their consumption habits – they have started saving. They are saving for autumn because they do not know how they will pay for heating. And the authorities have allowed a scheme whereby people will borrow gas and electricity and pay during the warmer months,” said Starikov. – Many have switched to bicycles because petrol prices are getting higher and higher. A jar of cooking oil costs €10, though a couple of years ago you could find it three times cheaper. Sugar and baking soda, those goods which they did not want to import from Russia and Belarus, are being panicked about. This is a huge potential for social protest.
– Energy prices are the main source of inflation for the three Baltic countries. But referring only to anti-Russian sanctions is not entirely fair,” explains Vladimir Olenchenko, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Studies at IMEMO RAS. – The Baltics have initiated disconnection from the common energy supply system with Russia in an attempt to break the BRELL electricity ring, and purchase energy on the Nord Pool exchange. Which costs on average 20 per cent more.
The second problem is food prices; they do not depend on the internal consumer but on the external consumer. Olenchenko gives an illustrative example: In the Soviet Union Latvia, which produced sugar beet, was one of the main suppliers of sugar. But after joining the EU, there was no place for it in the division of labour. The country stopped producing sugar beet and buys it from Denmark.
– The authorities are stepping up military expenditures while economising on the social sphere. The interests of the inhabitants are in the second or even third place, while militaristic efforts are in the first place”, Olenchenko stresses. – A possible reason for this lies in the composition of the Latvian government: Prime Minister Karins is an American citizen, President Levits seems to be serving a watch, and generally lives abroad – in Belgium.
Olenchenko compares the situation in government to the work of guest managers in corporations – they carry out the task and go on their way. How common people will live after their decisions are made, the “rotationists” could care less.
Tatiana Mishina, Izvestia
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