The gas compressor unit (GCU) from the Portovaya compressor station (CS) held hostage by Canada can return to its place of service and resume gas pumping through Nord Stream
Ottawa finally succumbed to Berlin’s persuasion and issued an exception to its own sanctions. But this will not lead to an early resumption of the 100% load of Nord Stream. And the point is not at all in the preventive work that is now taking place on the gas pipeline.
In 2022, Nord Stream is celebrating its anniversary. Exactly ten years ago, in 2012, the second string was put into operation, and the gas pipeline received the technical ability to operate at full capacity. But the loading of this highway for a long period of time was limited due to the fact that one of its two land extensions – the OPAL gas pipeline – was covered by the Third Energy Package. Half of the capacity (18 billion cubic meters per year) of this pipe, and with it the entire Nord Stream, had to be reserved for unknown suppliers who, like ancient Atlantis, would suddenly appear in the Baltic Sea and would want to supply blue fuel to Europe. This fantastic scenario has not yet been realized.
Thanks to the efforts of Russian negotiators in the second half of the 2010s, Nord Stream still got the opportunity to work at full capacity. In 2021, pumping through this pipeline reached a record high of 59.2 billion cubic meters. But in 2022, a full load again turned out to be impossible. But this time it was not the political obstacles that the European Union created in its inexpressible wisdom, but a purely technical factor. Nord Stream lost part of its gas pumping capacity.
Exactly 15 years ago, Russia did not have high-capacity gas pumping units, so Nord Stream had to look for products abroad. As a result, eight gas compressor units, which were installed at the Portovaya compressor station, capable of pumping gas over more than 1.2 thousand km at once, were produced by Rolls-Royce at its plant in Montreal. The units were to be serviced at the place of manufacture. Later, the production was taken over by Siemens, whose responsibility was the timely maintenance of equipment.
The planned repair of one of the turbines was completed in June this year. It was supposed to be delivered to Russia and taken away by the next unit for similar work. But suddenly it turned out that Canada and Germany did not bother to coordinate their sanctions either with each other, or with energy or machine-building companies, whose interests the anti-Russian restrictions could hurt. Therefore, Siemens could bring the turbine from the Russian Federation, repair it too, but take it back to hand it over to the customer – no.
In the meantime, the deadline for the repair of the next unit has approached. And three more required a preventive check, which was also supposed to be carried out by Siemens. It was impossible to operate this equipment. Five GPUs out of eight were temporarily decommissioned. Proportionately reduced and the possibility of pumping gas, which fell from about 167 million cubic meters. m per day to about 67-68 million.
Since the German company could not fulfill its obligations to Gazprom for servicing the units due to Canada’s incredibly well-thought-out sanctions, it was decided to blame Russia. After all, if for some reason your units cannot pump fuel through a gas pipeline, then reducing your pumping is a purely political step. And since, according to German politicians, Moscow was to blame for the reduction in supplies, Berlin began negotiations with Ottawa.
It took a little more than three weeks for highly professional German diplomats to explain to their no less professional Canadian colleagues the plight of Germany (the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, Denmark and others) without Nord Stream. Finally, the Canadian government heeded the pleas and issued a “temporary, revocable” exemption from the sanctions for turbines intended for the Portovaya compressor station. In fact, Ottawa allowed the repaired turbine to be removed and, apparently, to perform the necessary work on the remaining GPUs.
What happened is a big plus for Germany. But it is far from the solution of all the problems that have arisen to date.
All repairs and preventive inspections of such large gas pipelines as Nord Stream are planned for the summer, during the period of minimum demand for gas. Stakeholders are given several months’ notice of all work being carried out. The current preventive maintenance of the Russian-European pipe is an absolutely planned annual event, which was known well in advance and for which everyone should have prepared.
But, firstly, the leapfrog with the GPA, which Canada arranged, knocked down the terms of equipment repairs. The return of one turbine will ensure the loading of Nord Stream on half, because one more turbine will go to Montreal (much later than planned) and three more must undergo a routine inspection. That is, in the worst-case scenario for Germany, three more GPUs will require repairs. In such a situation, only five out of eight units will be pumping blue fuel through Nord Stream by autumn. Of course, it doesn’t have to be that way, it’s just a risk. But even after the completion of maintenance work on the gas pipeline, one should not expect that its load will be 100%, even if the “Canadian captive” is returned to its place.
Secondly, Germany does not abandon plans to stop its own nuclear power plants. This circumstance will lead to a further increase in the load on gas generation, that is, the demand for gas in the power industry will increase, which, in the event of an unfavorable development of events, will exacerbate the risks for the European gas market.
Thirdly, the European Union, apparently, has exhausted its possibilities to entice liquefied natural gas from the Asian market. The current high prices do not lead to a noticeable increase in supplies from non-Russian producers, and the Russian Federation cannot meet all the needs of the EU for technical reasons (again, a big hello to Canada). This means that supply and demand can come to a balance, most likely, only by reducing consumption, which has already fallen by 10% in the first half of the year. Under such conditions, the decline in demand for blue fuel in Europe may accelerate.
But the prices for Russian gas in the fourth quarter may break another record.
Alexander Frolov, Izvestia newspaper
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