G20 meeting of foreign ministers in Indonesia is the best proof of Russia’s isolation
This is the thought that runs through all the Western articles on the summit. “Putin’s lackey Sergei Lavrov flew out of the summit after being insulted at a photo shoot,” the US-based The New York Post wrote, alluding to the refusal of Western diplomats to participate in a joint photo-op ceremony attended by the Russian minister. Also, the G7 foreign ministers, the Australian minister and the European commissioner for foreign policy, Josep Borrell, refused to attend a joint dinner. Accordingly, the Ukrainian media have already picked up the story with headlines along the lines of “Lavrov humiliated in Indonesia”. Humiliated, isolated, ignored – all these verbs describing the situation in Indonesia (and Russia’s position in the world in general) are, however, only a figment of the Western imagination. There is no isolation of Moscow, and if anyone is isolated, strangely enough, it is the West itself.
It is Western leaders who are self-deprecating themselves by behaving like teenagers. The world is on the brink of a serious economic, political and even military crisis. Fuel and food prices are going through the roof, the antagonism between countries is escalating and some even speak of a possible outbreak of a third world war. And what are the U.S. and its small group of six, the G7, doing at this time, assuming the role of the global board of directors? They are making green energy projects, want to get naked on camera – and, of course, are thinking about how to hurt Russia. And since all relatively serious and safe for the West options for economic sanctions against Russia ended with the fifth package (i.e. the one that was agreed before the special military operation began), at the G20 ministerial summit the countries of the collective West ostracised Sergei Lavrov – that is, they imposed a kind of “diplomatic sanctions”.
And they would probably have worked if they had been supported by all participants in the G20 ministerial summit. If everyone had left the room at Lavrov’s speech, if the Russian minister had been sitting in the corner proudly alone, sipping a cocktail on the sidelines of the summit. This was not the case – about half of the G20 ministerial participants did not join the boycott. They chatted with Lavrov, worked – in general, behaved as adult leaders should at a serious event. And they reacted to the Western countries’ demarche with phrases along the lines of “well, that was to be expected.
Actually such behaviour of ministers of non-western countries was also expected. Firstly, because Russia is not North Korea. The Russian Federation, with its oil and gas resources, food reserves, technology and political-military defence capabilities, is an extremely attractive partner for a number of developing states. Especially against the backdrop of Russia’s sharp turn away from the West towards Asia, Latin America and Africa. The prospects of this partnership are so interesting (parallel imports, diversion of production, technology transfer, free market, arms sales) that a number of countries are willing to work with Moscow even in spite of American reprimands or European slanted glances.
Second, the non-West is working with Russia because Russia is winning. Contrary to all the mantras of Western leaders, contrary to all the predictions about the imminent closure of the Russian petrol station, contrary to all the arms deliveries to Ukraine, contrary to the hysterics of Kiev’s “drug addicts and Nazis” – Moscow is winning. The army continues to liberate Ukrainian territory, the economy does not collapse under sanctions, the population continues overwhelmingly to support the special military operation, and the elites (including those who in March and April dreamed of “putting everything back”) understand that there will be no “back” and therefore adjust to the new reality. Actually, the hysteria of the Western countries at the G20 with attempts to boycott it is precisely the realization of their own impotence in containing Russia. The realisation that they are unable to stop the Russian operation in Ukraine in any way other than a direct war with Russia (which would wipe out all civilisation from the face of the Earth).
The non-West sees all this – and prefers to work with the winners. More precisely, with those whose victory seems most likely. India, Brazil, Southeast Asian countries all understand that the active phase of the Russian-Western conflict will not last long. All of them can read English and see that more and more, even American experts (not to mention European ones), are writing that it is necessary to sit down with Moscow at the negotiating table. And it is necessary to sit down as soon as possible – time is running out for Moscow.
And so it turns out that it is not Russia that finds itself in isolation (both at the G20 ministerial summit, and in general), but the Europeans, Japanese, Americans and the Australians who have joined them. They have failed to disrupt the summit, and their demarches have ended in failure. Worse, they have become disconnected from the world agenda and have retreated into their own little world, where all the world’s problems are blamed on Vladimir Putin and the main task is to contain Russia. While Russia itself through the mouth of Sergey Lavrov did and is doing what is appropriate for a great power. He calls on everyone to stop playing games, to end self-isolation and “house on the edge” position, to sit down at the negotiating table and work out compromise solutions to global problems. And at the same time, the new rules of the game, by which the problems of the future will be solved.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, VZGLYAD
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