NATO leaders have adopted a new concept that calls Russia “the biggest threat” to the alliance
The leaders of NATO have adopted a new concept that describes Russia as “the biggest threat to the alliance. Which countries exactly are being referred to, what threat would such decisions pose to Russia, and what could Moscow do about it?”
On Wednesday, participants at the NATO summit in Madrid adopted a final declaration naming Russia as the alliance’s most significant security threat. NATO leaders approved a new strategic concept to 2030. The document is published on the North Atlantic Alliance’s website. The previous concept was adopted in 2010 and was fundamentally different from the new version, which essentially focuses on Russia.
“The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allied security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. It seeks to establish spheres of influence and direct control through coercion, subversion, aggression and annexation,” the updated document says.
NATO also calls the deepening strategic partnership between China and Russia and attempts by these countries “to undermine the rules-based international order” a threat to the alliance. NATO believes Russia wants to destabilise countries to the east and south of the bloc’s member states. NATO leaders have therefore agreed to a major increase in high-readiness forces on the eastern flank.
“In the far north, its (Russia’s) ability to prevent allied reinforcements and freedom of navigation across the North Atlantic is a strategic challenge to the alliance. Moscow’s military build-up, including in the Baltic, Black Sea and Mediterranean regions, as well as its military integration with Belarus, challenge our security and interests,” the document says.
The concept also says that NATO does not seek confrontation or pose a threat to the Russian Federation and expresses its willingness to maintain open channels of communication with Moscow “to manage and mitigate risks, prevent escalation and enhance transparency”.
“We seek stability and predictability in the Euro-Atlantic area and in relations between NATO and the Russian Federation. Any change in our relationship depends on the Russian Federation ceasing its aggressive behaviour and complying fully with international law,” the document says.
What kind of stability and predictability NATO seeks is clear from the bloc’s recent biography: 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia, 2001 US withdrawal from the ABM treaty, 2003 invasion of Iraq, 2008 instigation of Georgia into conflict with Russia, 2011 destruction of Libya, 2014 to 2022 military development of Ukrainian territory. And at the same time in 1999 and 2004 – two waves of expansion of the alliance to the Russian borders.
Alexander Bartosh, a military expert and a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, believes that following the summit, NATO “has moved on to the process of preparing for war with Russia”. “Moscow will have to take serious measures to ensure national security. Of course, this preparation will require time, forces and means, including the redeployment of troops. But we cannot remain inactive,” Bartosz believes.
NATO’s military build-up near Russia’s borders is a hostile move that poses a real danger. “And the fact that at the highest political level Russia has been reclassified from a strategic partner to a major security threat to the alliance is further evidence of that. Accordingly, NATO will now be strengthened in an accelerated mode,” Bartosz said.
Bartosz is sure that in the next few months NATO will not move to open military aggression against Russia, “but we have to be ready for anything. “We will be required to take very serious measures to ensure the security of our western borders because there will now be forces hostile to Russia from the northern part of the Scandinavian Peninsula and up to Turkey,” the interlocutor explained.
The decision to name China as a source of strategic challenge means that “forces and means will be built up against Beijing”. “And this is already being done – additional alliances are being created in the Pacific region. And this should also be regarded as hostile steps towards Moscow and China,” Bartosz concluded.
The Madrid summit also formally invited Finland and Sweden to join the alliance. That was made possible after Turkey lifted its veto on their membership, paving the way for the most significant expansion of NATO in decades. Finland has a long border with Russia (1,271.8 km) and Sweden can control the entrance to the Baltic Sea. The parliaments of all 30 NATO members must now vote to amend the bloc’s founding treaty to admit the new members. In the past it has taken up to a year, but this time the process is expected to be completed faster. The US Senate is already preparing to hold hearings on the application.
In addition, following the summit, the US announced a strengthening of its balance of power in Europe. At the meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, US President Joe Biden said that the US “will respond to changing conditions and also strengthen our collective defence”. He said NATO must be able to counter threats from all directions – in the air, on land and at sea.
Washington will send two additional F-35 fighter squadrons to Europe. The number of destroyers at the US Rota base in Spain will be increased to six. Also in Poland, Washington will host the permanent headquarters of the 5th Army Corps (Ground Forces) of the US Armed Forces.
It is in Poland that NATO’s most visible reinforcement is expected. This week the head of the ruling Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, announced that Warsaw was going to increase the national army from 150,000 to 400,000 troops to counter the “Russian threat”.
It is also planned to buy 500 HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, 32 F-35 fighters, 250 Abrams latest version M1A2 SEPv3 tanks, eight Patriot SAMs. According to Kaczynski, such measures are needed to respond to the “Russian threat” if necessary.
On top of that, the US is going to deploy additional air defence assets in Germany and Italy. In Romania, the US intends to ensure that an “additional” brigade of three thousand troops is deployed on a rotational basis, Biden said during a press conference in Madrid. “We are going to reinforce our rotational force in the Baltic states,” the US leader added.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov commented on Biden’s words. In his words, Washington “missed an opportunity to avoid an escalation scenario” which Russia had earlier provided in the form of offers on security guarantees. The diplomat warned that in countries where the US military presence would increase, security would not be strengthened and the risks would increase. “We will not be left in debt. We have the capabilities and resources, security will be 100% guaranteed,” the deputy foreign minister said. “I think those who propose such solutions are under the illusion that Russia can be intimidated – they won’t succeed,” Ryabkov said.
We would like to add that some participants in the Madrid meeting were very belligerent. Belgian Prime Minister Alexandre De Croo said that the conflict in Ukraine could be resolved “only on the battlefield”. “And we must continue to support President Zelensky as much as possible in order to win on the battlefield against Russian aggression,” De Croo said before the summit.
In addition, the German press noted that US nuclear bombs stored in Germany would be upgraded. Washington will spend $10 billion for this purpose. As for Germany, it is going to allocate billions of euros for purchase of aircrafts that can drop these charges. In addition, NATO expressed willingness to increase the number of rapid reaction forces from 40 to 300 thousand people. These are military units which the member states of the alliance have allocated to the Operational Command of the military-political bloc.
Ilya Kramnik, an expert of the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs, researcher at the IMEMO RAS and military analyst, believes that even after strengthening its presence on the eastern flank, NATO will try to avoid escalation. “So ideally the alliance will only limit itself to building up arms in Europe. As a rule, US and NATO rhetoric goes further than real intentions,” Kramnik said.
However, in the long term, such decisions by the US and its allies increase the risk of new military clashes in Europe or the escalation of the current conflict, including territorially. “At the same time, engaging in a head-on clash with NATO is not a promising idea, the alliance is bigger after all. Responding to them symmetrically is not an option either. Otherwise we will overstretch our economy because of the arms race. It is necessary to try to avoid this,” the analyst said.
The interlocutor is convinced that Russia should look for asymmetric ways to ensure its own security, avoiding an approaching nuclear conflict. The most effective response would be the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons carriers, such as Iskander complexes and combat aircraft “in areas of interest to us”. “Air defence needs to be strengthened – air power is a fundamental element of NATO combined operations. Therefore, the alliance will understand that a possible disruption of an air offensive on Russian territory would lead NATO to cancel the ground operation. Overall, we have to show the ability to threaten the very existence of the alliance countries,” Kramnik stressed.
Alena Zadorozhnaya, Rafael Fakhrutdinov, Vzglyad
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