One of the most frustrating aspects of the US debate on Ukraine is the degree of self-delusion about global unity. This assumption is wrong
Vladimir Putin is hated and feared by most of the West, just like Vladimir Zelensky. But most of the rest did not join the West. When Indonesia hosts the G20 summit in November, Putin will be there despite Washington’s demand to exclude Russia. Only four of 55 African leaders attended Zelenskiy’s virtual address to the African Union, which finally agreed so he could speak to them after 10 weeks of requests. Not every summit is a Western film festival, where Zelensky has become a major participant. And not everyone shares the view of the American foreign policy establishment that Putin is waging an existential war on democracy.
The West is not the world, and the world is not the West. It is surprising that this truism has to be emphasized.
For much of the world, Ukraine is just another humanitarian tragedy. The fact that the West sees it as existential is irritating. Africans, Arabs and Latin Americans know that when US ideals and interests clash, the US usually wins. We must be careful in judging those who make such compromises.
The world is feeling the crisis in Ukraine mainly in two ways – by rising food and energy prices. After the pandemic, in which emerging market growth collapsed and their debt-to-GDP ratio skyrocketed, inflation on staple foods is the last thing they need. If we add to this the rise in interest rates in the US, then we get the prerequisites for the next payments crisis in emerging markets and increased political instability. We cannot blame countries like India and Brazil for buying Russian oil at cut prices. We should also not be surprised that there are many who want to buy Russian grain.
The rapid disconnection of the West from Russia runs into geopolitical constraints. Countries such as China and India are helping create alternative payment systems and transport routes for Russian goods. They also block Western attempts to exclude Russia from the multilateral system. The best Western response to this would be to help emerging markets, in which China has long been a leader.
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