Western media began to scare the world with the consequences of the EU gas games with Russia
Vladimir Putin, a master of martial arts, knows very well that a number of them are built on using the energy of the enemy against him. Therefore, the Russian president is pleased to watch how Europe, mired in energy provocations, begins to realize the consequences of the “gas war” unleashed by it against Russia. And among them are “growing social, political and economic tensions”, that is, potential riots, the inability to fill gas storage facilities before winter. Well, as well as the rollback of Europe years ago: a return to coal and the abandonment of all Napoleonic plans to create “green energy”.
At the same time, some European leaders are calling for the continuation of energy sanctions against the Russian Federation.
“It’s humiliating to buy Russian gas until Putin decides to turn it off. He receives income from us to finance his genocide in Ukraine,” ex-Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt is indignant.
“The morally correct answer to this would be an immediate ban on the import of Russian hydrocarbons and real solidarity of the EU member states in the implementation of this ban.”
However, the problem is that more and more EU member states are in solidarity on something else: they see that even attempts to limit the import of Russian gas and oil hit their own economies.
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that although Germany’s gas storage facilities are 58% full (more than a year ago at the same time), the country will not be able to meet the target of 90% occupancy without additional measures. CNN.
He did not explain what these measures would be, but it is obvious that there are no good options among them.
At least we will talk about the reduction of industrial production.
- “Power outages and low opportunities for immediate replacement of gas supplies from Russia are likely to require some rationing and reallocation of resources, which will lead to a reduction in production in the eurozone. In particular, in energy-intensive sectors”, – Politico quotes a statement from the European Central Bank.
Migration of production from Europe
Moreover, cuts are expected not only short-term (no gas), but also long-term (there will be no cheap energy).
- “European producers may want to settle where there is cheap energy. This means the destruction of jobs on our continent, the loss of money… The whole system is being destroyed”, – the French newspaper Les Echos quotes the opinion of one of the experts.
As the maximum is called the introduction of restrictions for the population, which, of course, is fraught with the local authorities themselves.
“The pressure that Russia is putting on the Europeans by gradually shutting off their gas serves several purposes. In particular, it increases points of social, political and economic tension”, writes the French newspaper Les Echos.
“The shortage of gas leads to an even greater rise in prices, which can cause social crises like the “yellow vests” in France. Similarly, a lack of fertilizer (all synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are made from fossil gases) and a blockade of grain exports could lead to a real food crisis”.
The International Energy Agency, quoted by Reuters, has already urged Europe to prepare for a total shutdown of Russian gas, adding that it does not see this scenario as the most likely. It’s not easy to get gas from anywhere and replace it with available resources, especially given the fact that, as The New York Times notes, France’s nuclear industry is in crisis and is unlikely to be able to help European partners dump gas dependence on Russia.
Goodbye ecology!
Of course, the West blames Moscow for everything that happened.
“Russia declares a gas war on the European Union,” the publication Politico is indignant.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking a hard line on the EU by cutting off gas supplies to some of its biggest consumers out of rage at sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine.”
According to Robert Habek, Vladimir Putin “is doing what was feared from the very beginning: he is reducing the volume of gas, but not immediately, but step by step.” However, the Russian president did not cut anything, he generally removed himself. All the blame for the reduction lies with Siemens, which was unable to provide maintenance for the turbines, or, in other words, was unable to pick up the repaired turbine from Canada, which complies with anti-Russian sanctions.
However, they are right about one thing.
“The European Union will have to choose between Ukraine and gas,” says the French newspaper La Croix.
That is, between its thoughtless policy to contain Russia and its own economy.
Trick or Treat
Yes, someone will say that when choosing between values and money, you need to choose values, but the gas dilemma also has a value and measurement. Europe is forced to choose between its own and Ukrainian future. After all, if she chooses Ukrainian, that is, continues the sanctions, then the Europeans will have to forget about all their green undertakings.
“Russia’s stranglehold on gas could turn Europe back to coal,” writes The Washington Post, referring to a return to unsustainable power and heat generation by burning coal.
“A return to coal would be against climate policy, but it is already happening in Amsterdam and Berlin… Germany says it is restarting some coal-fired power plants and Austria is converting an existing power plant to use coal. In the Netherlands, the authorities have removed restrictions on energy production at coal-fired power plants, the publication continues.”
Yes, “for the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, the emergency measures taken by European countries to reduce gas demand, including a return to coal, are justified given the scale of the crisis – despite the increase in carbon emissions,” writes the Spanish newspaper La Voz de Galicia. However, it is very interesting how the European greens will look at this, the same German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock, who actively opposed the import of Russian gas.
Not surprisingly, Europe’s position is already moving towards greater adequacy.
- Before the war, Russia provided 40% of gas supplies to Europe. Therefore, even with restrictions on gas storage or increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to some countries (including Germany), a complete replacement of Russian gas in the short term is almost impossible. Therefore, EU leaders are forced to talk about the improbability of a complete ban on Russian gas. The move is seen as impractical and politically divisive discussion.
It remains only to take one step: to stop discussing the gas topic altogether. At least in order not to hit their own economy with their sanctions energy.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor, Financial University, LIFE
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