By the 100th day of the special operation, the victory in Ukraine as a whole has already been won, but the global conflict is far from over
Today is the 100th day of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, which is already officially called the war between Russia and the West, only a proxy war, a war with delegated powers.
All wars are similar to each other, but none repeats the other. Ultimately, they are all different. Operations in Georgia, Syria and Ukraine were carried out by the same army (the last two are better equipped technically), but their pattern is completely different. The amount of funds involved, the timing, the risks, the potential result cannot be compared. The stakes have increased substantially over time. In Georgia, Russia, in case of a loss, risked only its authority in the Caucasus (including the Russian territories of the North Caucasus), the failure of the Syrian operation would weaken Moscow’s global position. Well, in the case of Ukraine, Russia is fighting for its existence.
And it doesn’t matter if Ukraine itself survives. The Ukrainian state can be completely destroyed and reliably destroyed, but Russia itself will be inflicted with wounds incompatible with life. The West (primarily the USA) is working for such an outcome. There may be something left of Ukraine, while Russia will emerge victorious from the fight. This option was assumed at the beginning of the special operation, in those few days when it was still a special operation, and not a “war by proxy”.
At this stage, given the number and potential of the states involved, no one can say exactly where, when and how the hostilities will end. The USA is trying to prolong the conflict, expand the front of the countries involved, increase its depth and increase the overall tension. At one of the next stages, Washington needs to enter the format of the conflict, in which the resources spent by Russia on a daily basis (if not in absolute terms, but at least in percentage terms) will exceed the resources used by the West, and maintain this format for as long as possible.
The United States hopes that in this case, the exhaustion of Russia will occur before the economic and social catastrophe caused by the military sanctions crisis will force the West to end the war. Russia does not rule out that at some point the West will be able to reach the positions designated by the United States. The Kremlin in this scenario is not going to give up or capitulate. Moscow warns that it will retaliate with a “strike at the decision-making center.” That is, it will once again abruptly raise the stakes by offering the US and NATO to choose between nuclear war and a compromise peace.
In 1938, the future Hitler Field Marshal Wilhelm von Leeb wrote the great work “Defense”, which was officially published by the German General Staff, and the British translated it into English and published it at home. His earlier works devoted to defense were translated into Russian and in 1936 used in the preparation of the field charter of the Red Army. In general, in the thirties, von Leeb was a recognized specialist in defense.
Leeb, following Clausewitz, considered defense the highest form of military art, emphasizing the idea:
“The task of defense is to resist, the task of attack is to win. It’s always easier to resist than to win.”
Russia has a paradoxical situation in the current war. On the one hand, it just needs to resist, wait until the West runs out of steam and is ready to record its global defeat. That is, it should occupy a strategic defense. On the other hand, in the current alignment of global forces, in order to resist politically, Russia has to conduct a strategic offensive militarily, with an unclear goal. Moscow does not and cannot know (because no one knows this) whether it will be possible to end the war at least on the western border of Ukraine or whether the United States will be able to draw at least part of its Eastern European NATO allies into the conflict, giving it a new format: by expanding the front and increasing its depth.
Hence the principle of economy of forces, put by the Russian leadership as the basis of military and political campaigns. Unused political, economic, financial, diplomatic, military-technical and, of course, demographic reserves – all that we combine with the capacious term resources, are Russia’s argument in the global confrontation.
In addition, Russia is forced to take into account the danger of both a slow slide and a rapid collapse into a nuclear conflict. There are forces in the West that are ready to risk nuclear blackmail up to the first tactical strike. And then the bad sequence of inevitable steps dictates either someone’s (the one who did not dare to further raise rates) capitulation, or quickly leads to a full-scale (using all available weapons) exchange of strategic nuclear weapons.
This requires, on the one hand, careful diplomatic work and information policy, which, however, become more and more stringent with each subsequent step, and, on the other hand, readiness, if necessary, to deliver a preventive demonstrative strike, which will convincingly demonstrate to the West Moscow’s readiness to marginal increase in rates and, consequently, the senselessness of further whipping up tensions.
Russia needs peace, because in a peaceful format it wins the future of the United States no less reliably than in a military one, without risking human civilization. At every stage of the war, including those that were completed before the special operation and those that may be coming after it, Russia has offered and will offer to conclude compromise agreements. The West constantly refused, constantly raised the stakes and constantly lost. As a result of the weakening of the West in the course of its defeats, the conditions for a compromise peace put forward by Russia became tougher.
It is clear, for example, that the losses of the same Ukraine before the special operation and at the moment are different losses. To date, they have increased significantly. If the special operation continues for a few more months, then with the highest degree of probability Ukraine will cease to exist much earlier than the end of the proxy war of the West against Russia. True, if at some point the West decides to come to the war in person, everything for everyone can end at the same time.
By the hundredth day of the special operation, this whole set of prospects and dangers was realized in Europe as well. At least the “old members of the EU” have realized – the states with a rich history of independent foreign policy, which, although forced by the will of their elites to move in the wake of American policy, but (at least at the level of the conservative part of the elites) are able to reasonably assess the consequences of both this policy and and own servility.
As a result, at the moment we have a dismantled Ukraine, which is supported only by external props, which can be removed at any time, because the costs of galvanizing this political corpse have long exceeded all potential bonuses from its pseudo-life. The European Union is in a semi-disassembled state, torn between the tradition of going with the Americans to the end, which is supported by part of the elites in power, and the need to take responsibility for their own destiny, which is advocated by the right-wing, traditionalist part of the elites. Russia has gathered and is ready to go to the end. On the other hand, the US is ready to fight to the last European.
In general, by the hundredth day of the special operation, victory in Ukraine has already been won (regardless of what will be written in the agreement that formalizes peace and with whom it will be concluded), and as for the victory in the proxy war, it can end with the end of Ukraine’s resistance, but may extend beyond. This is how arrogant the United States is, and their Eastern European allies are insane.
Today, it is obvious to any unbiased person that in the Donbass and Ukraine, the Russian army is fighting for the future of mankind. For humanity to have a future in general.
Rostislav Ishchenko, Ukraine.ru
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