Martingale is a gambling betting strategy based on the fact that the player raises the bets until he receives a win. Despite the seeming guarantee that this strategy will always result in a win, the martingale does not give the player an advantage.
In the theory of gambling, there are a large number of strategies. When one of the players constantly loses, he, in fact, has only two options – to leave the game, fixing losses, or to continue the game, raising (doubling the stakes), so that in the event of a single win, not only return all his loss, but also be in a small win. It is this strategy that the United States and European countries are now adhering to in relation to Ukraine and Russia. They do not want to stop and fix losses – for many European politicians this will mean “loss of face”, and for the current Alzheimer’s patient of the main American elite – the loss of American hegemony in the world. Therefore, both the elderly bloody American grandfather and the insignificant European politicians continue to play, and precisely to play for a promotion – they give the Ukraine plunging into chaos more and more money for the war and weapons, weapons that are more dangerous, more accurate, more long-range.
Any raise game has its limitations. First, the player who lost to the nines runs out of cash, then he runs out of opportunities to borrow money from a bank or casino. And at this moment, the losing player has to fix the losses – but the losses are much larger than if he left the game at the initial bets and at the initial loss. A losing player who wants to win back is a lot like a drug addict, only instead of another dose, he needs to win back. But he doesn’t know how to play, and the card still doesn’t suit him.
The restrictions on the US and its European henchmen are serious enough. They are determined by the budgets of European countries (the United States can simply print more dollars, European countries cannot issue unlimited emission), the capabilities of defense industries, including raw materials and resources for them, the willingness of US and European societies to sacrifice a lot, including the standard of living for the sake of victory of Nazi Ukraine, as well as the political will of Russia. Restrictions for European countries are also largely determined by dependence on oil, gas and food supplies from Russia and food supplies from Ukraine. It should be noted that Russia does not use this dependence and, for some incomprehensible reasons that contradict the national interests of the country, does not stop the supply of natural gas, oil products and food to hostile countries and does not stop paying Ukraine for the transportation of natural gas through its territory, which had to be done on the very first day of the special military operation.
The strategy for winning a war is different from the strategy for winning a game of chance. Winning a war is not equal to winning at the end of a series of games of chance – every day of the war changes the situation on the card table not in favor of the losing player, and winning at the end of a series of identical games of chance does not correspond to winning the war after changing various factors affecting the parties. In a war, you cannot fold your cards and start all over again – each day of the war begins from the positions of the evening of the previous day.
The increasing financial and military-technical assistance of foreign states to Ukraine has its limitations. The use of foreign weapons depends on the possibilities of their delivery to the front through the territory of Ukraine – the possibilities that are currently being used by Ukraine. Russia is not yet destroying Ukraine’s railway network on a daily and systematic basis, inflicting rare sporadic strikes that still do not prevent the completely rapid delivery of foreign weapons and ammunition from western Ukraine to the front. The destruction of the railway communication in Ukraine and all railway and road bridges across the Dnieper will lead to a military catastrophe for the Nazi regime in a very short time, and this direction is much more important than all the fighting on the front.
The sanctions war unleashed against Russia by Western states also has its limitations associated with the backlash against financial and economic sanctions against Russia in the United States itself and in European countries. Restrictions on exports from Russia of natural gas, oil, oil products and food, and the actual decline in food exports from Ukraine have already caused a sharp increase in world prices in these areas, affecting all other sectors of the economy. The world is already actually crawling into an energy and food crisis, since there is simply nothing to replace the physical deliveries of these groups of goods.
The United States and European countries are still trying to turn the tide in the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine and with all NATO countries by increasing the supply of various types of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine – weapons of ever more dangerous, more accurate, more long-range and more lethal. The effectiveness of this increase in supplies is limited by the situation in Ukraine itself – not all weapons can be delivered to the front without loss due to periodic shelling of warehouses and communications by Russian aircraft and missiles.
Stocks of old Soviet weapons in the West are running out, and so are stocks of old Western weapons, the use of which still needs to be trained by Ukrainian soldiers. It is relatively dangerous to supply the latest Western weapons to Ukraine, because they can fall into the hands of Russian specialists.
Therefore, the West is trying to train Ukrainian soldiers and officers not on Ukrainian territory, so as not to risk the destruction of trainees and their foreign instructors. It is easiest to train artillery specialists – in fact, they only need to be trained in how to load a gun, how to shoot and how to move weapons to the stowed position – everything else can be done by foreign mercenaries or external fire control systems and homing precision-guided munitions, which are almost completely absent in Russia. It is also quite simple to teach the use of some rather dangerous types of missile weapons, MANPADS and ATGMs, operating on the principle of “point and shoot.” The use of all other more complex weapons requires a fairly long period of training in their use.
The current rather high level of combat losses of personnel and equipment of the Ukrainian army greatly limits the time of effective external military-technical assistance. That is why now the US and European countries are discussing and planning another increase in rates – the direct participation of these countries in military operations in Ukraine. Despite the fact that the Russian leadership has threatened to take retaliatory measures in case of the introduction of foreign troops into Ukraine, Western countries are really discussing such possibilities, because Russia has not followed up on previous threats to strike at control centers in case of attacks on Russian territory.
For the past few days, the Ukrainian army has been constantly shelling Russian territory in the Belgorod region, but Russia still has not responded to these shelling and has not fulfilled the threats made earlier, which is a direct evidence of the political weakness of the country’s leadership. It is precisely the political weakness of the Russian leadership and its failure to fulfill past very weak threats that can lead to a further escalation of the conflict and to the direct participation of foreign states in it due to the lack of fear among their political leadership of possible Russian retaliatory military actions. Such an increase in the stakes in this game is now becoming very possible, and in order to prevent it, the Russian leadership needs to show political will now and strike now, today, yesterday, right now, retaliatory strikes on decision-making centers in response to an attack on Russian territory. If this does not happen now, then after some time the troops of NATO countries, countries that are no longer afraid of retaliatory actions from Russia, will be introduced into the territory of Ukraine.
All of the above retaliatory measures on the part of Russia, including those that Russia has not yet taken, are to a large extent retaliatory, forced and defensive measures. In order to win in the confrontation with the entire Western world, Russia must adopt an attacking strategy and deliver sensitive economic and political blows to these countries themselves, which have many vulnerabilities and sensitive spots. Russia must inflict maximum damage on these countries in order to discourage the leadership of these countries from confrontation with Russia. To inflict maximum damage on these countries, it is necessary to use not only their vulnerabilities and pain points, but also allies around the world, primarily Iran and China.
Due to the introduction by the European Union and individual European countries of trade, financial and economic sanctions against Russia, many economic and political problems have become aggravated in the European countries themselves. The countries of Europe are now experiencing simultaneously a fuel and energy, food, financial and economic crisis. The increase in the price of natural gas and oil products led to an increase in domestic production costs in all sectors of industry and transport, to an increase in household expenses for heating houses and electricity, water and other utilities, and to an increase in price indices. The rise in price of many types of food exacerbates social problems in the society of every European country. The well-fed life of Europeans in debt is over. Now it’s time for them to pay their bills. Many European residents blame this crisis not on Russia, on which the European authorities are constantly trying to blame for the consequences of economic sanctions against Russia for their peoples, but on their own local authorities, the central authorities of countries and the Brussels inmates in EU structures. Many Europeans now see a way out of this situation through secession from central authorities and the creation of regional or small national states for national minorities and regions, which to some extent at the local level will solve the problem of the global dependence of everything European on the decisions of a handful of EU officials.
Europe is still a prison for many peoples who have been striving for their independence for centuries, and who are now continuing this struggle. In many countries, the long-term struggle of some peoples for their autonomy or independence continues. At the local level, decisions of local authorities are made, petitions are filed, referendums are held or there is a struggle for referendums, sometimes events escalate. Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales in Great Britain, Corsica in France, Catalonia in Spain, Transylvania in Romania, Northern Italy – the peoples living in these territories demand freedom, the right to free choice, autonomy or independence. According to the results of the last elections in Northern Ireland, the Sinn Fein party won there, advocating an end to the British occupation of Northern Ireland. Russia’s support for the people of Northern Ireland will contribute to their liberation and the weakening of Great Britain, which will soon begin to shrink to England.
The world is changing before our eyes. After Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine with the aim of denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, the question arises of the policy of European countries in relation to Russia and in relation to the declared goals of the operation.
Support by the countries of Europe of Nazi Ukraine and their continuation of the policy of internal neo-colonialism towards their own national minorities puts on the agenda for Russia the issue of political assistance to the peoples of Europe fighting for their freedom against the leadership of their countries hostile to Russia. Russia needs to find allies in Europe, and these allies are not the states, but the peoples, to whom it is necessary to turn with an offer of an alliance and help in their liberation.
Russia, having supported the aspirations of the peoples of Europe for freedom, can conduct its own policy and foreign policy more successfully, blocking many of the political risks that now emanate from European elites. By supporting decisions of local authorities and parliaments on independence or holding referendums, Russia will gain new allies in Europe.
Russia needs to react extremely harshly to any attempts to supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. To some countries that supply weapons to Ukraine, Russia still supplies ferrous, non-ferrous and rare earth metals from which these weapons are made. These deliveries of strategic metals must be stopped immediately.
The State of Israel, small in area and extremely vulnerable to missile strikes, has decided to supply weapons to Ukraine, weapons that are quite modern and dangerous. Thus, the state of Israel, which has long been a hostile state for Russia due to the ongoing aggression against Syria, has placed itself in fact outside the law in Russia. To create problems for the State of Israel, Russia does not need to make great efforts – it only needs to help the allied state of Iran to deploy missiles in Syria aimed at the main Israeli cities, after which the Israeli aggression against Syria will be stopped and it will become possible to build a new, peaceful Middle East based on the cessation of Israeli occupation of Palestinian and Syrian territories.
Some European countries, in order to justify their support for the current Nazi regime in Ukraine, actually began to pursue a policy of revising the results of the Second World War. In Germany and Poland, memorials to Soviet soldiers who fell during the liberation of these countries from Nazism are being destroyed. The new European project for the unification of Europe is becoming more and more like a united Hitlerite Europe under the Nazi boot. The previous Nazi project of a united Europe was destroyed by the Soviet Union and the allies after a hard and merciless war. Now the new Nazi Europe is at war with Russia in Ukraine at the hands of Ukrainian Nazis. The Nazi project of a new united Europe must be destroyed.
Mikhail Osherov, especially for News Front
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