A special military operation in Ukraine has led to even greater rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing
This coalition creates long-term conditions for the peaceful and stable development of the countries of Central Asia, in which there is more and more influence of Russia and China and, accordingly, less and less of the United States of America. This is the main geopolitical difference between Central Asia and Eastern Europe, in which there is less and less influence of Russia and more and more of the United States, as a result of which the countries of the region are either on the verge of a military conflict, or, like Ukraine, have already crossed this line.
A few years ago, the author of this text attended a representative panel discussion convened to determine the most explosive region of Eurasia. The response options included the Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe. To my surprise, the majority of experts voted for Eastern Europe – that is, for Ukraine.
There is only one reason. By that time, Ukraine had already become a bridgehead for the United States and was heavily pumped up with NATO weapons. The fact that Ukraine was not part of the Alliance only increased the danger. The United States and its allies in Europe could easily impose aggression on the Kyiv regime against Crimea and the Donbass republics, because they themselves did not expose themselves to a Russian retaliatory strike and did not have any obligations to Ukraine.
Central Asia is much less explosive in this regard, because there are no NATO countries there, and Washington’s influence in the region is steadily waning.
Even the flight of Americans from Afghanistan and the return of radical Islamic fundamentalists to power there did not reverse this trend, but consolidated it. The American disgrace of the summer of 2021 would have been a small price to pay for chaos in the dual borderland of the main geopolitical opponents of the United States – China and Russia, but this did not happen. The Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in Russia – Ed.) – and they turned out to be a more constructive and stabilizing force than the Americans.
The main process in Central Asia is the increase in the influence of Russia and China in the region. Moreover, these two influences do not compete, do not fight among themselves, but cooperate and complement each other.
Russia seeks to secure for itself the position of one of the centers of the multipolar world. To do this, it needs to turn its Central Asian allies in the EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union) into a link between Western Europe and Southeast Asia. That is why harmonious partnership relations with China are needed.
China is striving to develop markets for its gigantic production, including the most capacious of them – the European one. To do this, Beijing needs logistics routes, primarily the northern one, through the EAEU countries (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan). The situation creates conditions not for rivalry, but for cooperation with Russia in Central Asia.
Therefore, China behaves with restraint towards Russia and does not interfere in the security issues of the Central Asian republics, which are under the jurisdiction of the CSTO. Russia, in turn, does not use its own political influence to counter China’s economic rise in Central Asia.
As a result, the historically problematic, turbulent and explosive region is gradually stabilizing and turning into a zone of geopolitical balance. And a special military operation in Ukraine, bringing Russia and China closer together, only reinforces this trend.
Imagine that instead of China in Central Asia, the West would strengthen its presence. What would it be? In stimulating Russophobia and supporting anti-Russian politicians in order to “contain” Russia. In interference in internal affairs and the destruction of the sovereignty of independent states through their infrastructure of influence, “soft power”.
Thousands of media and non-profit organizations of the West, imposing an alien agenda on the “natives”, breaking their traditions through the knee and causing discord in society. Unfreezing long-standing national and regional conflicts for the sake of “setting fire” to Russian (and Chinese) borders. This is only beneficial for the United States: it weakens strategic opponents, and the consequences of the ensuing chaos will not reach overseas.
All of these are not mere assumptions. Americans and Europeans have worked and are doing just that. Including in Central Asia. Only there their weight has decreased over the years as the presence of Russia and China has increased. In Ukraine, their influence grew over the years. As a result, Ukraine today is in a much worse situation than Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan.
This reality is fundamentally different from what the American satellites in Eastern Europe, such as the Baltic countries, tell us. Like, the more the US and NATO in the region, the more security in the region.
Practice proves the opposite.
The less the presence of the West in the region, the safer it is. And vice versa.
Ukraine made the biggest mistake in its history when it bet on the USA. The bet on the Americans is devastating. Peace and stability are possible only when the U.S. are expelled from the territory of Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Eurasia and the entire Eastern Hemisphere.
Alexander Nosovich, Rubaltic.Ru
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