At approximately two a.m. on 25 April 2022 a fire broke out at two facilities in Bryansk: a storage tank of petroleum products at the oil depot of Transneft Bryansk-Druzhba JSC on Moskovsky Avenue in the Fokinsky district of the city and a tank of 10,000 cubic meters of diesel fuel at the oil complex on Snezhetski Val caught fire. The Investigative Committee of Russia is investigating the circumstances of the incident
It is obvious that the fire at the two oil product storage facilities around the same time was not accidental. Experts believe that air strikes, most likely from drones, are the most likely cause. I note that Bryansk is more than 100 kilometres from the Ukrainian border.
It is a very interesting coincidence. In the early hours of the same day in the Kursk region, two Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over the village of Borovskoye near the town of Rylsk, 30 kilometres from the border.
A pattern has emerged. Every visit to Kiev by a high-ranking Western official is marked by a landmark action against Russia.
On 10 April 2022, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was in the Ukrainian capital. On 14 April 2022, the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship cruiser Moskva was seriously damaged and sunk. On 25 April 2022, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Kiev and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his team. And on the same night, oil storage tanks in Bryansk were hit. Two UAVs failed to reach their targets in the Kursk region.
During a meeting on 25 April, Ukrainians were told that the US would provide Ukraine with a new military aid package worth $322 million. In addition, Washington will begin discussions next week on the resumption of diplomatic presence in Ukraine.
Interesting fact. After the round of Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul on 29 March 2022, the so-called “Istanbul incident”, diplomatic missions of 16 countries returned to Kiev as of 19 April 2022.
The head of the Ukrainian parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, made a landmark statement in an interview with the Ukrayinska Pravda news and analysis website on 25 April 2022. He answered the question about the possibility of changing the Constitution of Ukraine if we receive security guarantees: “Why? If we receive guarantees, we will use these guarantees. And what is written in the constitution about NATO, about the EU, is our perspective vision of the future”.
Asked whether Ukraine would amend the constitutional provision on the course to join NATO, he said: “We will not. Changing the constitution is not and will never be an end in itself. It is a toolkit.” As early as mid-March 2022 Stefanchuk did not rule out such a scenario.
Military assistance to Ukraine from the US and its allies is enormous. From February 24, 2022, the date of the start of Russia’s special military operation, to April 22, 2022, Kiev received $3.4 billion in funding, and with the $322 million announced on April 25, it comes to about $3.72 billion.
On 22 April 2022, the Pentagon published on its website the nomenclature and quantity of weapons for Kiev, outlining them in the form of a detailed list. Let’s quote it in full to make the scale clear:
“over 1,400 Stinger MANPADS;
more than 5,500 Javelin anti-tank missiles;
over 14,000 other anti-tank systems;
more than 700 Switchblade tactical UAVs;
90 155 mm howitzers and 183,000 155 mm artillery shells;
72 tactical trucks to tow 155 mm howitzers;
16 Mi-17 helicopters;
hundreds of armoured HMMWVs (High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles);
200 M113 APCS;
more than 7,000 small arms;
more than 50,000,000 rounds of ammunition;
75,000 sets of body armour and helmets;
121 Phoenix Ghost tactical UAVs;
laser guided missile systems;
Puma UAVs;
unmanned coastguard boats;
14 anti-artillery radars;
2 anti-mine radars;
2 air surveillance radars;
M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel mines;
C-4 explosives and demolition equipment;
tactical hardened communications systems;
Night vision equipment, thermal imaging systems, optics and laser range finders;
Commercial satellite imagery services;
Protective explosive ordnance disposal equipment;
Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defence equipment
Medical supplies, including first aid kits.
Judging by this list, the emphasis of arms supply is gradually shifting in favour of heavy systems. Furthermore, it has become known that the USA intends to supply Ukraine with the American M142 HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) missile system.
This system includes a 5-ton three wheeled chassis FMTV, which carries two types of equipment: six MLRS rockets with a range of up to 70 km, or a launcher for one missile such as ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System) with a range of up to 300 km.
Delivery in the ATACMS modification does not formally violate the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), as it contains restrictions on deliveries of missile systems and unmanned aerial vehicles capable of delivering payloads weighing 500 kg or more to a range of at least 300 km.
Obviously, Kiev will be able to more actively pursue plans to transfer combat operations to Russian territory thanks to the availability of such weapons. Therefore, these missile systems should be priority targets for Russian precision-guided weapons.
In an interaction with the press after his trip to Kiev on 25 April 2022, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was asked: “Do you define America’s goals for success in Ukraine any differently now than at the beginning of this war? And if so, what are those goals today?”
The Pentagon chief responded as follows: “We want Ukraine to remain a sovereign country, a democratic country capable of defending its sovereign territory. We want to see Russia weakened to the point where it cannot do what it did by invading Ukraine. So, frankly, it has already lost most of its military capability and most of its troops. And we want to make sure that she doesn’t have the ability to replicate that capability very quickly.”
Thus, the US sees the armed conflict in Ukraine as a war of attrition for Russia, the result of which should be a critical loss of our country’s military capabilities.
It is well known that Rustam Minnekaev, the acting commander of the Central Military District troops, at the annual meeting of the Union of Defence Industries of the Sverdlovsk Region on 22 April 2022 named the main tasks of the second phase of the special military operation in Ukraine:
“Since the start of the second phase of the special operation, it has already started literally two days ago, one of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over Donbas and Southern Ukraine. This will provide a land corridor to Crimea, as well as affect vital facilities of the Ukrainian economy.”
He also said that “control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there is also evidence of oppression of the Russian-speaking population”.
Rustam Minnekayev’s speech was very positively received by the overwhelming majority of Russian citizens. For the first time since the so-called Istanbul incident, the goals for the second phase of the SSR were clearly outlined in the public agenda. The lack of unequivocal information on this topic generated a great deal of rumour, speculation and even defeatist sentiment.
It can be assumed that during the second phase of the USO, Russian troops and DNR and LNR troops plan to take full control of the territories of the DNR and LNR within the administrative boundaries of the respective regions, as well as the Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev and Odessa regions. This may also include the territory of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Total: eight oblasts.
Considering America’s goals in Ukraine, as announced by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, as well as the Kiev regime’s active attempts to transfer combat operations to Russian territory, the second phase of the USS will clearly not be the last.
The natural course of events, escalation, as well as geopolitical factors suggest that the Russian EWS area of operation should gradually extend to the whole of Ukraine.
Only the establishment of military control over the entire Ukrainian territory will allow the western project “Ukraine-Anti-Russia” to be completely closed. Ukraine as a state must disappear from the political map of the world. Any other scenario would only be a temporary solution to this problem.
Further, part of the regions freed from the Nazi regime in Kiev should eventually be allowed to become part of Russia through procedures established by international law. The rest of the Ukrainian territory, which has also always been an original Russian territory, should be under Russia’s protectorate, with all the ensuing consequences.
Aleksandr Vladimirov, Russtrat
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